The South started the shooting. They intended to win. They lost. War’s a bitch, especially when you lose.
Define win.
Lincoln started the shooting. You send warships to attack, you are going to get some shooting.
They intended to win.
They didn't even intend to fight. Union intransigence made it impossible for them to be left alone, or to avoid a fight.
They lost.
When a nation with 4 or 5 times your manpower advantage wants to kill you, it's pretty hard to stop them. Has anyone ever beaten such odds in history?