Posted on 04/29/2019 7:43:32 PM PDT by Michigan Bowhunter
That would be the first time in history that a Libertarian helped a Republican nominee.
I agree he could have won MN without the Billy Bush tape and can win it next time.
But I was only speaking to Johnson’s effect on the 2016 results. Whether absent Johnson and the Libertarian party being on the ballot (and no other factors changing, still a Billy Bush tape) would Trump have won any more E votes in 2016?
My conclusion for 2016 was, mostly in disagreement with DJ’s post 22
NH, yes as it was extremely close, he only would have needed 3K Johnson votes (about 10% of Johnson’s total) more than Hillary to overtake her.
MN, quite possibly, Trump would have needed 45K Johnson votes (amounting to about 39% of Johnson’s total) more than Hillary (worth noting it was gave a high 1.8% to McMuffin as he had the Independence Ventura party ballot line, if neither Johnson nor McMuffin was on the ballot then I would say with a high probability that Trump would have taken it )
ME at large, not likely
NV even less likely.
Colorado or New Mexico? No, he would have needed 90%ish of the Johnson vote.
Maine-District 1 (1 vote), of course not, as Hillary got 53%.
I think it’s a safe bet that Trump lost more votes to Johnson than Hillary did by an appreciable margin but Hillary certainly lost some as well (more than Romney lost and more than any democrat has ever lost to a Libertarian before), and many of them would not have voted for either. Like I said I wish someone had exit polled them (or would poll them now).
I certainly hope most them vote for Trump in 2020.
I only know 1 2016 Johnson voter, my aunt who had her pic taken with him and she had this huge smile, crazy nut, in 2012 she and my uncle both voted for Johnson but he voted for Trump. They like weed and allowed their teen children to smoke it in the house.
I met one. A tech who came to fix my TV, now loves Trump.
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