Even Alabamians who dislike Moore didn’t want or expect Doug Jones to win. People figured they could safely stay home because they figured Moore was a lock. It was simply inconceivable that a Democrat could win a senate seat in Alabama.
Well, that illusion has now been shattered. Alabama got a HUGE wakeup call. As a result, I seriously doubt anyone will make the mistake of staying home this time around, no matter how flakey they think Moore is. I think the state’s been inoculated against a repeat of 2016.
At this point my expection is that the Republican nominee will win the seat no matter who he happens to be, and probably by a comfortable margin.
That said, Mo Brooks would be the best choice. Rock solid conservative, smart (economics degree from Duke), pithy and sharp in front of a camera, and no flakiness. He’s currently a congressman and would make a great senator IMO.
There is still some number of Republicans who will not vote for Moore. It's a guess as to how many there might be, but there are several percentage who will not vote for him, and there are Republicans all around the US who will not vote if they disagree with a Republican candidate on an issue critical to them. Not many Dims are like that.
Maybe Moore will stay out of this one, and if not, with far more voters coming out than in that special election, his chances of screwing things up should be much less.