I think like you do.
Carriers are very capable platforms at power projection in a conventional setting against a weaker foe with no air power or navy. Carriers are a very vulnerable platform against a foe with better capabilities such as China or Russia.
The future is drones, stealth aircraft, and AI. Seed the ocean floor with robotic torpedoes and drone submarines and it only takes one to break the back of a carrier. Hypersonic missiles from aircraft or land platforms present a huge threat. Submarines still present a significant threat to carriers. The immediate future of warfare is drones and AI with a larger presence in space (hat tip to Trump for recognizing the importance of space) and all of these things make a carrier very vulnerable.
The advantages of stealth are dominant now, but given that they are only “invisible” to most current radar systems and may not be invisible to newer satellites above we may be back to the same problems against more capable foes with that technology. This is why space is so important in future warfare and it is very difficult to predict. Ground based lasers can target platforms in space just as space based platforms will likely be able to target ground targets. Put most of your eggs in one basket like a carrier and a single technology (likely at little comparative cost) can erase the largest military investment in the blink of an eye.
The future of power projection will be far different than what we currently imagine. We can be certain of this and the traditional carrier as we imagine it now is the main target all of our foes are focused on because we are so dependent upon them.
Which is why they( our enemies ) are desperate to develop fixed wing naval aviation.