The problem with looking at the county maps is that they aren't population weighted. If you look at the area around Watertown and the tug hill plateau on a two D standard map it looks like a large area of conservative support - but not all that many people live there, and black flies don't vote. If you add a third dimension of population density it shows a different story.
![](https://cdn.citylab.com/media/img/citylab/2016/11/MetroMap3D_V4_01/940.png?mod=1494529689)