If you go and look internationally, you usually end up with about fifty percent ‘hard-dedicated’ to a party, around forty-percent ‘leaners’ and 10-percent who could flip election to election, depending on the candidate, the platform, or just some unusual variation.
A good example, in France twenty years ago....the two primary parties were a left-of-center group and a right-of-center group. The two parties could usually take the bulk of voters. Well, in 2017, those two parties could only generate 20-percent combined. The Macron-Party (out of thin air) brought new variations into an election that hadn’t been seen before.
In the US case, identity-politics play a key role now. The Democrats have worked for twenty years to build this into their central path to voters. Their problem though....people are waking up, and taking the ‘red-pill’....realizing that they were lied to or deceived. So I would suggest a fourth group to Pell’s study...the potential ‘red-pill’ crowd who might flip permanently to the GOP.
When are the white voters going to realize that when the democrats talk about racists they are really talking about them? The white democrat and independent voters have not figured out that the democrats are also talking about them. The trick is that the magic word “racist” is designed to fire up black voters so that they are motivated to go to the polls. While “racist” is designed to make white voters feel guilty so they vote for democrats so that the feel like they are not racist. The democrats are always dividing people while pretending that they want to unite people.