Posted on 02/08/2019 9:02:02 PM PST by SleeperCatcher
Only going to happen if the Republicans grow a pair between now and then.
Democrats will win every race that within ‘the margin of error’ on polling because they cheat.
Bravo!
I am doing what I can in my State. I too am a precinct delegate and on the local committee.
Doing something always has a chance to beat doing nothing.
Contesting every seat is something I support. At the same time you cannot waste finite resources on the 150+ plus of House seats that even a billion dollar ad buy wouldn’t make the democrats sweat them let alone lose them. So people running in rat leaning areas (let alone the ghetto) need to rely on free media and low/no cost tactics.
Anyway, what are our chances? Ticket splitting is at a modern nadir, if Trump wins he’s gonna win a majority of districts and GOP House candidates should be able to win almost every seat he does (and hopefully a handful he doesn’t) that should produce a majority, if a small one.
If he can manage to win by a less than tiny margin we should be golden.
There are a few still vulnerable GOP seats but not many, we should be almost entirely on offense. RINO Will Hurd’s seat worries me the most.
The list,
“Below is the list of GOP targets:
AZ-01 – Tom O’Halleran
AZ-02 – Ann Kirkpatrick
CA-10 – Josh Harder
CA-21 – TJ Cox
CA-25 – Katie Hill
CA-39 – Gil Cisneros
CA-45 – Katie Porter
CA-48 – Harley Rouda
CA-49 – Mike Levin
CO-06 – Jason Crow
FL-07 – Stephanie Murphy
FL-13 – Charlie Crist
FL-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
FL-27 — Donna E. Shalala
GA-06 – Lucy McBath
IA-01 – Abby Finkenauer
IA-02 – Dave Loebsack
IA-03 – Cindy Axne
IL-06 – Sean Casten
IL-14 – Lauren Underwood
IL-17 – Cheri Bustos
KS-03 – Sharice Davids
ME-02 – Jared Golden
MI-08 – Elissa Slotkin
MI-11 – Haley Stevens
MN-02 – Angie Craig
MN-03 – Dean Phillips
MN-07 — Colin Peterson
NH-01 – Chris Pappas
NJ-02 – Jeff Van Drew
NJ-03 – Andy Kim
NJ-05 – Josh Gottheimer
NJ-07 – Tom Malinowski
NJ-11 – Mikie Sherrill
NV-03 – Susie Lee
NV-04 – Steven Horsford
NY-11 – Max Rose
NY-18 – Sean Patrick Maloney
NY-19 – Antonio Delgado
NY-22 – Anthony Brindisi
NM-02 – Xochitl Torres Small
OK-05 – Kendra Horn
OR-04 – Peter DeFazio
PA-07 – Susan Wild
PA-08 – Matt Cartwright
PA-17 – Conor Lamb
SC-01 – Joe Cunningham
TX-07 – Lizzie Fletcher
TX-32 – Colin Allred
UT-04 – Ben McAdams
VA-02 – Elaine Luria
VA-07 – Abigail Spanberger
VA-10 – Jennifer Wexton
WA-08 – Kim Schrier
WI-03 – Ron Kind
Most of these are ones we just lost last year
Those that are not are
AZ-1 (Narrowly votes GOP for President but we keep running weak candidates)
FL-7, lost in 2016 due to gerrymandering, voted for Shillery
FL-13, Ditto but Trump improved on Romney’s numbers, very close,
IA-2 Usually the rattest Iowa seat, Trump carried it, a RINO held last decade
IL-17- Trump won it, GOP won it in 2010 under previous lines
NJ-5 Scott Garret (R) sadly lost here in 2016 even as Trump narrowly won
NV-3 (Trump carried it but lost in 2016 with a weak candidate)
NV-4 Rat-leaning swing seat which we won in 2014, then lost, D for President
NY-18 Trump won it. GOP won it in 2010 (and before 2006),
MN-7 (long rat held, carried hugely by Trump, moderate rat had a close call even in 2018, must win)
OR-4 Long rat held, Trump came close,
PA-8 Trump won it, PA was redrawn and a lot of the territory was new for the rat in 2018, even though the partisan balance stayed the same, the rat was reelected by 9 points.
WS-3 (long rat held, carried by Trump but that rat had NO opponent in 16’ and won easily in ‘18)
IMO the list is negligent in not including CT-5, only a 12 point rat in 2018 in an open seat race, it’s close at the potus level. CT-2 was pretty close for Trump as well. NH-2 shouldn’t be written off either.
The only 2 2018 rat pickups NOT on the list I THINK are 2 hopelessly gerrymandered seats in PA. Some of these though I’m quite pessimistic about like VA-10 and CO-6.
Thanks for that list.
Very informative.
I knew the GA, SC, and Utah seat would be on it.
GOP, your milquetoast is ready....
She does have the ability to raise a lot of money.
‘Targeting’
Sounds series.
Yes, Rats should be forced to defend CT-5 every cycle.
It belongs in conservative hands.
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