I wouldn’t read too much into Roberts having voted for staying the order and thus keeping the status quo ante (prior to the bew law) during the appeals process. It’s the kind of thing that he does all the time, even when he ultimately votes to uphold the new law. While you’re right that Roberts doesn’t enjoy overturning precedents as much as I would, please keep in mind that he voted to uphold a similar law less than three years ago despite such law creating much more of a “burden” on women seeking to kill their babies (because half of the state’s abortion doctors weren’t able to obtain admitting privileges at nearby hospitals and several abortion clinics woukd have had to close, while in Louisiana only like three abortionists haven’t been able to obtain privileges at nearby hospitals and no abortion clinics would have to close).
Oops. “bew law” = “new law.”
I think your analysis is right but the argument is that under the law only one abortion clinic would remain open because as of today only one doctor has admitting rights.
In Kavanaugh's dissent he acknowledges that if that's really the case it would create an undue burden, but he thought the law should be allowed to go into effect.
He argues that if the other doctors can't get admitting rights then the challengers could return to court - and presumably prevail.
So I wonder what would happen if Louisiana AG said...”As we have no proof the RGB is actually alive or is of capacity to have voted on the matter, we feel that a fraudulent decision by the SC has been rendered. If proof of life of RGB can be strongly put forth by the SC, then we shall recognize this court decision as legitimate and shall respond to the court’s decisions as ordered. Otherwise, we shall consider the court’s decision as a 4 to 4 tie and will proceed with implementation of our law in question.”
It will force them to prove that RGB is alive and is of capacity including her recorded voice and signatures regarding her votes in question. They will need to show publicly that she is still alive or else create a constitutional crisis.