Posted on 01/27/2019 3:03:58 PM PST by Kaslin
Last night was supposed to be the deadline for American diplomats in Venezuela to vacate the country as ordered by dictator Nicolas Maduro. After the United States, along with Canada, several South American nations and the EU moved to declare Maduro’s presidency illegitimate, the tyrant had basically cut off relations with America. The White House refused to obey the order and everyone was holding their breath, waiting to see what would happen next. But at the last minute, Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry sent out a “never mind” announcement and said the decision was on hold for thirty days. But that doesn’t really change anything absent some shift in policy on both sides. (Associated Press)
Maduro gave U.S. diplomats three days to leave the country, but the Trump administration said it wouldn’t obey, arguing that Maduro is no longer Venezuela’s legitimate president. That set the stage for a showdown at the hilltop U.S. Embassy compound Saturday night, when the deadline was to expire.
But as the sun set on Venezuela’s capital, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying Maduro’s government was suspending the expulsion to provide a 30-day window for negotiating with U.S. officials about setting up a “U.S. interests office” in Venezuela and a similar Venezuelan office in the United States. The U.S. and Cuba had a similar arrangement for decades before the Obama administration restored diplomatic relations with the communist-run island.
The State Department did not confirm the Venezuelan government’s account, reiterating only that its priority remains the safety of its personnel and that it has no plans to close the embassy.
Venezuela is currently not a safe place to be unless you happen to be in the good graces of the ruling socialist party. Embassy workers have reportedly already shipped family members and non-essential personnel out of the country, but our diplomats and their limited security forces remain. There are also American ex-pats living in various places around the country. With a madman like Maduro in charge, none of them should be considered safe.
The fact that Maduro blinked and opened a thirty-day window for negotiations is a positive sign, but it seems unlikely in the extreme that either side will back down at this point. That means that one month from now we could be right back where we were last night. Can you really imagine Donald Trump backing down at this point and recognizing Maduro as the legitimate president? That’s highly doubtful. And Maduro has been emboldened by the financial, diplomatic and military support he’s received from China, Russia, and Turkey, among others. (Yet another reminder that Turkey is no longer our ally.)
The worst case scenario is one where the clock runs out and Maduro imprisons our entire diplomatic staff. Then we’re back in the equivalent of another Iran hostage crisis. Suddenly, the unthinkable prospect of direct military intervention in Venezuela probably starts becoming more “thinkable” around the Oval Office. In terms of American interests, that brings us to an entirely new level of disaster.
The only escape hatch from the current stalemate would appear to be the people of Venezuela, along with the military, kicking Maduro out and scheduling new elections. There have been cracks showing up in the bond between Maduro and the military recently and this weekend another one appeared. The country’s senior military attache at the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington, Col. José Luis Silva, broke ranks with Maduro and called on the military to also formally recognize Juan Guaido as interim president. Of course, it’s a lot easier for Silva to say such things from the safety of Washington, D.C. Getting the actual army in Venezuela to follow his lead is another matter.
My wild guess is, Maduro knows he's over, and is working out a retirement plan that permits him to live in style, with a security staff, in a nice villa in Venezuela, and immune from prosecution, just as Daniel Ortega did when he was voted out in Nicaragua (the Sandinistas commandeered all the erstwhile mansions of the Somoza regime). He should not get such a deal, he should be arrested and killed on the spot, then given a posthumous trial for his crimes. That would be accompanied by show trials for his minions, all of whom would then be found guilty and executed.
Erdogan in Turkey and our friends in Mexico are supporting Maduro, despite most latin american nations asking to remove him.
The white Mexican intelligensia is a cesspool of Marxist... I was at their parties tagging with a friend when I was 14, and I can attest to that first hand.
A coup that doesn’t succeed within hours isn’t going to succeed.
Give him the deal. Then kill him when the new govt is established
That works for me too. Leaving the bastard alive for any extra few minutes risks the kind of recovery of power that Chavez enjoyed when he was removed by the military. Those officers should have carried out his immediate execution, because they were going to risk consequences whatever they did after they arrested that a-hole. Better to just kill him at the first opportunity. Allowing his ass into exile just means he'll be polluting US airwaves thanks to the 24/7 efforts of Partisan Media Shills.
Well what do you do? Smacking Venezuela is like smacking an 8 year old getting off the bus.
Frankly, President Donald J. Trump and his advisors have no intention of allowing a repeat of the Iranian and Libyan embassy disasters. Look for back-channel missives to fly back and forth between the White House and high-level Venezuelan officials over the extreme advisability of outright violence against sovereign American territory and personnel in Venezuela. These missives may include pointed photographs of former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega sitting shackled in an American prison.
The mere fact that Nicolas Maduro and his socialist goons have backed down already seriously weakens them in the eyes of fence-sitting supporters and in the eyes of potential military defectors, a fact of which President Donald J. Trump and his strong-minded foreign advisors — I'm looking at you, John Bolton — are keenly aware. I have no idea how this unfolding drama in South America will end, but it'll likely be a quite interesting little play. ^_^
Exactly. It’s like a mugging that takes 8 hours. Somethin’ ain’t workin’!!
Suppose the people rise up and remove this bozo at the National Assembly who declared himself president. It was they who elected Chavez twice this century, and on his death, designating Maduro his heir apparent, the people elected Maduro.
So which altar will you worship at? Anti Socialism that is a minority? Or the democratic process that elected Socialists with a majority. No one questioned Chavez’s victories.
The majority of people in the world accept Maduro as president. He won the election last year and the term is 6 yrs. China supports him, so does India, and Russia, and Mexico. That . . . with just those 4 countries, is the majority of the world.
An excellent post, with much thought and substance to each sentence. I almost hate to point out I think you meant to say the INADVISABILITY of harming our embassy personnel.
Jazz...lay off the crack pipe, OK?
Not going to happen under this POTUS.
My thoughts too - he’s probably looking for a few billion and safe passage....would be wrong as hell but also display what socialism wreaks - the bad guys reap the riches while the citizens suffer in squalor.
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