I did major project economics in my past. Managers would insist on zero risk for projects. I laughed at them. There isn’t any such thing, especially in our country and when politicians are involved. It is a blooming miracle anything at all gets done in this country since almost all of the significant conditions of tax and regulation are subject to change every 4 years. What is more, decisions made today will not see daylight until long after they and the conditions under which they were made can change. Technical risks get the focus, political risks are usually taken as a leap of faith because there isn’t much you can do about them but to leave the regime.
Congress did get the tax structure changed, but middle class got hammered again, it is only a temporary measure just like the Bush tax cuts which were quickly done away with. The regulatory change we have enjoyed is administrative change that can be wiped out with the stroke of a pin just like it was executed.
This mill will be subject to the capricious ways of the politicians from local to feral level for decades to come. You have to get your investment dollars back quickly before you get hammered.
We got all excited at the prospect of returning to a more normal world when Trump was elected. This last year some woke up to the fact that nothing good in the country lasts very long anymore. I’m happy Trump is here now but I’m afraid he is a unicorn and I know he is mostly alone. The electorate in this country has changed and is changing for the worse. We pulled another rabbit out of the hat in ‘16.
Stable government has its problems, too. Alan Abelson writing for Barron’s said that anyone who relied on government numbers when making a major investment decision was a fool.
Yeah. I learned that lesson back in the early 90s when I was involved in an international negotiation. All the problems you mention were there then, plus one you missed: being stabbed in the back by erstwhile allies.