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To: neverevergiveup

“If tomorrow a competitor to Apple, or to Facebook, or to Google were to emerge,”

Magical Thinking.

The politics relevant to Apple stock right now is international trade.


60 posted on 01/03/2019 8:03:15 PM PST by CharleysPride (Peace, Freedom and Prosperity. Thank you, President Trump.)
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To: CharleysPride
“The politics relevant to Apple stock right now is international trade.”

Yes, it's probably the primary issue, but it is more than that - for sure.

First, there is an ‘emotional’ component of all commerce. That's why companies spend so much money on advertising. It's not just name recognition. It's also ‘image’ and perception. Apples’s image has been (but is no longer) that of the innovative upstart company who were driven by doing ‘cool things’ more than by cold hard economics. By doing stupid things like constantly changing the plug-in configurations for power cords, etc, Apple's image has changed from ‘cool’ to corporate. That's huge, and makes them much more vulnerable economically than they've been in a long time.

Second, there isn't a really ‘new’ product line or new directions. There's new and improved iPhones, etc., but there is no paradigm shifting new technology. Like it or not, cell phones are much, much less ‘cool’ than they once were, and people aren't salivating to buy the ‘new phone’ as much anymore. That's just an inevitable progression of the business. Apple Watches, etc., are not going to overcome this - though cool new applications and application-based hardware (e.g. the ability to use your phone for ECGs, sleep apnea monitoring, and a myriad of other uses) will continue to drive sales.

The issues facing Facebook and Google are, on the other hand, very, very much predicated on the perceived political biases and manipulation associated with these brands. That, and the threat of potential government intervention in these corporations are making investors very skittish - understandably. Neither is shiny and new anymore, and that they are now perceived by a significant percentage of the public as being arbiters of biased social engineering is a very, very, very big problem for them. Just wait and see. It won't be that long before the significance of this becomes evident.

All economics is ultimately based upon perception and emotions.

63 posted on 01/03/2019 8:45:11 PM PST by neverevergiveup
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