Even if McConnell caves in 2019, as long as there are not enough GOPe turncoats to override Trumps veto, Trump has the upper hand and this could theoretically go ad infinitum ... til 2020.
Here is the starting point of the negotiation: Trump 5.7 billion; Schumer $0 and line in the sand that there will be no wall. Normally people start to move away from their position (i.e. compromise, which many Americans are used to accepting). As time goes on, and if the GOP plays it right, Schumer will be outed .... he will have to explain why $0 and no wall is a reasonable position to keep the gubmint shut down in light of:
1) 20+ million illegals already here;
2) democraps oppose a census question about immigration status
3) democraps are opposed to ICE and many prominent democraps want to abolish ICE and have been very vocal against them;
4) democraps states / cities are sanctuaries for illegals;
5) democraps have defended the caravan (pictures of which will undermine them, like the caravan carrying country of origin flags, demanding payment to return home, etc);
6) heinous crimes that have happened and will continue to be committed by illegals as the shutdown continues;
7) democraps oppose any wall.
Any argument by Schumer that the democraps want border security with just these 6 democrap positions out there and no wall ... will force them to have to explain their position in more detail, to make people believe that what they stand for really works (which it doesn’t). The cracks won’t be from Schumer, it will be from other democrap Senators up for re-election in 2020, and maybe senators like the snake from WV recently re-elected, where there are ads showing his last campaign talking (or is it lying Joe?) about the need for a wall. The pressure will be from the voters eventually. But if over time no one misses the closed government offices, then the democraps have another issue to deal with, including answering why are we paying these people’s bigger than the average American’s salary for doing nothing.
Democraps need Trump to cave in the short term, and not only would they get no wall, but Trump will be reading H.W.’s lips - he will be toast all the way and after 2020. Democraps need to make it personal to Trump, “Trump temper tantrums”, “Trump shut down”, blah blah blah. It isn’t believable because Schumer delivers the personal attacks with a scowls, furrowed brow, and in a tantrum. The longer it goes on, the better for Trump. It is more than just fulfilling a Trump campaign promise, it is dealing with a problem that politicians have lied to the American people about for over 3 decades, when they last “fixed” it in 1986, “once and for all”. If Trump doesn’t deliver something more than nominal, he is toast.
The risk is that Republicans have a history of undermining their own. Granted, McCain was the leader in cobbling together "gangs" of "bipartisan" Senators to offer a "third way" that was really a Trojan Horse for the Democrats' way.
I'm just afraid that this tendency is still in the Republicans' DNA, and will tug hard on their resolve the longer this goes on. Flake was especially afflicted with the McCain curse; he's gone now but there are still weak-minded Republicans (Ben Sasse?) who will fall under the spell to be the "reasonable turncoat" who steps up to undermine the Republican base position, thinking they're doing what's best for "the American People," but really just advancing the liberal Democrat position.
-PJ