Replies

Most people are unaware of the situation of jockeying for power in the Middle East. There are several interests competing for overall power over the Persian Gulf, independent former Soviet states, control of the Muslim "holy sites" and for some, the destruction of Israel.

The main power brokers are Iran, Turkey, and the Saudis - who are tacitly allied with Israel. Turkey has been maneuvering with Iran for influence over Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kirghizstan, and Uzbekistan - and going along with Iran in suppressing the Kurds since the Kurds are located in both countries. Basically, whomever gains control, controls the Islamic world.

The reason the Turks exposed their espionage capabilities by skylining the Kashoggi murder was to diminish Saudi power and to elevate their own. We are closely tied to the Saudi-Jordanian-Israeli- Gulf State alliance and therefore aligned against both Iran and now, Turkey. Syria is only important to us because of its ties and assistance to Iran - and its links to Russia.

And THAT'S how you explain the middle east realpolitik of today.

Part two = Derp vs Non Derp.

NonDerp USA (Trump)/Saudi/Israel vs. Iran/Turkey/EU/DerpUSA.

Simple.

“The main power brokers are Iran, Turkey, and the Saudis - who are tacitly allied with Israel. Turkey has been maneuvering with Iran for influence over Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kirghizstan, and Uzbekistan - and going along with Iran in suppressing the Kurds since the Kurds are located in both countries. Basically, whomever gains control, controls the Islamic world.

The reason the Turks exposed their espionage capabilities by skylining the Kashoggi murder was to diminish Saudi power and to elevate their own. We are closely tied to the Saudi-Jordanian-Israeli- Gulf State alliance and therefore aligned against both Iran and now, Turkey. Syria is only important to us because of its ties and assistance to Iran - and its links to Russia.”

bump that comment!

All you wrote is true, and it is also all nonsense. Nonsense in that these countries still dream of their former glory, and would be able to prosper immensely through peace. For the non-historians, the entire area basically from Turkey to Iran to Egypt had been controlled by various empires over the millenia. The Ottomans (Turks) had the last regional empire which fell apart after WWI. But they had also grossly mismanaged it for decades prior. Their mismanagement led to harsher sanctions and demands for higher taxes - and the people were still mostly agrarian. Try collecting gold coins from shepherds.

Ancient Egypt ruled up and down the Levant. The Persians/Babylonians (Iran) held all the way to Egypt. The Syrians (Assyrians) held it. And the Romans did, and Atilla the Hun did too.

Some irony in that this region is still so important. During the Bronze age (apx 3000-5000 years ago) there was no empire but a lot of trade. The most important trade to the countries, for their armies, was Copper and Tin which when smelted together made the bronze swords and shields and armor. Copper came mostly from Cyprus and Tin from Afghanistan areas. Later, spices, foods, wool & cotton, gold & silver, livestock etc all traded. If you know your geography you know that the trade routes naturally ended up with the Levant (now Israel mostly) being a sort of central hub.

There were no real empires (as we think of them now) in the Bronze age. You just had a lot of trade. From the Berbers (Morocco) to the Hittites (Syria) to the Greeks - all around the Mediterranean - they traded goods and prospered. There were of course wars. We know the ancient Greeks and Spartans were independent confederations not really a cohesive political leadership. And we know that various tribes made allied treaties of defense and conquest. But for the most part this region flourished through trade.

Today, religious and ethnic tribalism plays a bigger part. The Turks hate the Armenians and Kurds, and fear they will lose land to a Kurdish state. The Shia and the Sunni war over what we would consider small religious disputes like praying at grave sites and lighting candles (which, ironically, the Israelites also argued about which is why some groups moved to the desert and we found their dead sea scrolls listing their greivances).

But for the life of me I don't know what business Saudi Arabia has installing troops in Syria. Ostensibly to support the Kurds. And maybe we see something of Trumps "deal of the century" revealing itself. He wants a big peace plan to encompass the whole ~~enchilada~~ falafel, from Israel-Palestinian to Kurds to who knows how far reaching it will be.

Like many I am astonished that the left is reacting negatively to troop withdrawals. This is what they elected Obama to do. Instead Obama mucked it all up with his regime change and Iranian sycophancy. We should be out of Syria and the smart player he is Trump slow rolled his plan to embarrass his opponents. They cried about pulling troops out of Syria and now we know his plan is bigger than the day to day announcements. These people hate Trump so much they just rail against him no matter what. They give him zero credit and I can list many things they should have given him much kudos for doing.

Anyway, let's see how it plays out. Mattis, at Trump's orders, gave the Saudis a 30 day deadline for cease fire in Yemen. That war is a huge mess btw, so he is right imo. Yemen doesn't matter. Iran is going to get distracted elsewhere now and besides, a pro-Iran government in Yemen that is not openly hostile is not the top priority.

I have some thoughts on how things might be proposed in his "deal of the century" but don't want to jump the gun. Let's see how it shakes out. One thing for sure, Trump 2020 re-election campaign is underway and imo he is finally starting to make the right moves (again).