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And Trump loses re-election in 2020 if he runs on something other then the GOP banner!

Why do I say that? Ok consider the two possibilities.

1. Do it like Ross Perot. Use his money to leverage his way on the ballot as an ‘ad hoc” 3rd party I remind you Ross Perot lost. The best Ross Perot could have done was throw it into the House. He would not have won that. Both parties will fight to keep Trump off the ballot, the GOP because of the threat to “their candidate”, the Rats to impede the establishment of that act for the day when it might hurt them. (but they won’t fight as hard as the GOP for obvious reasons!)

2. This is not 1856! It is much harder for a mainstream political party to collapse and go away like the Whigs did. Either by accident or purposeful design the mainstream parties have embedded themselves in state election laws through the country. These private organizations called “mainstream (GOP & Ra)t political parties” have over time gotten themselves quasi-governmental status. In many states (maybe all!) state funds (state tax dollars) pay for the primary elections Why? Rat & GOP have quasi-state institution status now. That will be hard to change! Yes 3rd parties are on the ballot. However the mainstream parties see that they are their treated as jokes. The mainstream parties will ensure they stay that way,

Back to (1) the Perot approach. The Rats are far more monolithic in their voting then the GOP. They have the “rent seeking” voting demographic 40%-47% (Romney number!) that are not going to change until something drastically changes the culture (That will take time!) The are going to vote Rat come “Hell or high water”, they in their minds have to maintain their “rent seeking” status quo for their own needs & livelihoods. Someone has already pointed out that that 40%-47% number automatically translates into 200-220 electoral votes!.

Now look at the GOP, subtract out the 40%-47% Rat votes, the GOP likely gets something like 40% to 47% also. The battle is over then final 20% to 6%. Probably the actual figure is 10%. Now run Trump as 3rd party, GOP vote splits, at least 10% probably closer to 20% stay establishment GOP. Now do the remaining math and see if it translates into a likely Trump victory. Again at best its in the House, and who has the House now? You could end up with a Rat Prez & Pence VPrez. You think there is chaos now! Think about it if that happens! You’re probably thinking Riley you idiot there is this vast sea of untapped voters out there that are too discouraged to vote. Yes they exist, but they didn’t turn out in number in 2016 like I thought they would, and they certainly didn’t in 2018. For now I think these voters are too discouraged, or disinterested to vote period and will be for some time. So Trump tapping this “vast sea” is too iffy in my mind.

So IMO Trump is better off capturing the GOP, drive the anti-Trumpers into irrelevant 3rd party status or to the Rat party. Its still going to be very hard. The “Wall (or something as nearly effective!) & shutdown” must be held firm if Trump wants a 2nd term. Anne Coulter is right about this one!.