We know that overseas voters cast about 40K votes in Florida. 20K were already returned and are included in the VBM tally.
That leaves at most, 20K still outstanding. A large percentage of these either won’t make the 16th deadline, or are never returned even though they are requested.
I’m completely guessing here, because there is no way to know how many will come back.
If there are 10K votes left, and if we allocate them at 62.5% to NELSON, he’d only gain 2.5K from them.) Scott would still maintain a 10K lead.
The GOP won the overseas ballots in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004. I don’t know about 2008, 2012 or 2016.
Joke:
Reporter to Dem election official: “How many uncertified or uncounted votes are there now?”
Official: “As many as we Democrats need. As many as we need.”