Iowa Absentee Ballot Returns (2016 v 2018)

Iowa Sos ^ | 11/06/18 | me

[Ravi]

see comments if interested...

[Ravi]

Iowa Dems always lead with absentee ballots (a la Florida) but then the Reps catch and pass them on election day. The key with the absentee ballot returns is to keep it relatively close as the Reps did in FL and pass them on election day (as the Reps seem to be currently doing). With that said, here are the Absentee Ballot Returns by party for 2016 and 2018 (statewide).

11/08/16:

D: 267,791(41.0%) R: 225,800(34.5%) I: 157,419(24.1%)

11/06/18:

D: 227,487(42.9%) R: 186,983(35.3%) I: 112,303(21.2%)

Of course Iowa 2016 was a smashing success. Trump won handily and carried the state by 9%. No way would we match the 2016 success. Having said that, you can see the Dems have modestly increased by 1.9%, Reps have modestly increased by 0.8% and Indies have decreased by 2.8%.

This sets up well for an R victory in the Governor's race (I know polls show a toss-up) and it definitely bodes well for IA-3 and IA-4. The riskiest seat IA-1 (Blum) also looks to be in good position looking at the ballot returns for his district. He won by 7.4% in 2016 so he has a little leeway. He is marginally worse than 2016 but I still think he wins based on what I'm looking at. This assumes the few Indies don't break hard for the Dems.

[Ravi]

FYI

[Pining_4_TX]

Hey, I voted this morning... and I wore red! :-)

[skams19]

Thanks for the information. I’m hopeful Hubbel will go down to defeat.

[Kay]

Interesting. Thanks again. You do good work.

[TonytheTiger7777]

I voted Rod Blum in District 1, Kim Reynolds for Gov, straight Republican ticket. Red Tsunami on the way!

[Albion Wilde]

Ping!

[Notthereyet]

Reps have modestly increased by 0.8%
______________________________________

I’m confused. How can the Republicans have increased if their 2018 #s are less than their 2016 #s?

What am I missing?

[QualityMan]

wifey and I just got home from voting in BH county. heavy turnout in my precinct...way ahead of 2016 at same time of day..

also saw poll workers turn people away for not having proper ID.

[Ravi]

Increased their share percentage of the vote. Obviously every party loses raw numbers from 2016 presidential.

[Notthereyet]

As that flew right over my head, I’m sure I would not have made any good wagers. LOLOL

[Runner4life]

I believe he is talking about percentage of absentee ballots returned compared to 2016. The percentage is a bit higher than 2016. But so are the D’s. I voted all R’s. Praying Blum can hold on here. It’s a historically Dem district that Blum has won twice. Go Blum, Reynolds, King, etc! Hell, let’s throw out Ballsack in d2 as well!

[Notthereyet]

Throw out EVERY darn Democrat!

[Pining_4_TX]

What is wrong with Iowans? I am so ticked off right now. My rep is now going to be a tax and spend Democrat. Puke! Only 1 of the 4 congress critters in Iowa will be a Republican. I just pray that sleaze Hubbel loses.

[Ravi]

Looks like Reynolds will win. Lots of ticket splitters there. Very disappointing with the Iowa Congressional districts.

[Pining_4_TX]

I know. I’m still trying to figure this state out. Perhaps there is an infectious element that creeps over from MN. :-)

[Ravi]

I think we get IA-1 and IA-3 back in 2020 though. We’ll see.

[Pining_4_TX]

I hope so. Cindy Tax-me is scary.

[Kay]

Thanks so much for all your hard work. It was very good.

Best to you and your work.