I think McSally will win AZ’s open senate seat today. (LS wrote earlier that the GOP could lose the House seat that she currently holds in Tucson, AZ).
Trump won AZ by about 4 percentage points, and that was with a Libertarian candidate draining off about 2 percentage points from Trump’s vote totals. There’s no Libertarian in this Senate race, but Sinema is somewhat more popular than Trump’s opponent in 2016. But even allowing for Sinema’s greater popularity, I don’t expect to see a lot of people who voted for Trump or the Libertarian guy voting for Sinema today. So I expect to see McSally win comfortably by 1 to 2 percentage points and possibly much more than that.
I have not gone to the media sites today. I suspect silence? They are not sure what is coming? I am not sur either but I have a suspicion.
Thank you for that clarification! I had read and re-read that analysis by LS and couldn’t make the curve.
“McSally was going to win”. “McSally’s seat was gone.” Confusing.
Only AZ voters got it and I knew I was missing something obvious.
Now I do!
Thanks to you.