So what are the seats the Dems will Definitely Flip? It seems they have, at most, a definite shot at 10 or so.
“So what are the seats the Dems will Definitely Flip?”
Minnesota 3 is one unfortunate possibility. It was once the epicenter of GOP activity in Minnesota but the suburbs have started to turn a bit bluer and the district is now a purple one.
The Dems found a self funding millionaire trust fund baby to run. Throw in a lot of .liberal PAC money and this seat looks like a goner.
Wasn’t there has been some court ordered redistricting. PA? NC? I don’t recall the details. I believe the Dems pick up a few guaranteed seats. I don’t remember the exact numbers.
Group 1, pretty sure losses:
PA 3, NJ 3, Comstock VA10, Sessions TX23, for now, Blum IA1, Yoder KS2, Issa’s seat (CA whatever), McSally (AZ2).
That’s 12.
Group 2: (tossups)
On the bubble: Polquin (ME2)
Curbelo (FL27)
Salazar (FL26)
Roskam (IL whatever)
Bishop (MI11)
Epstein (MI)
That’s 18
Group 3: Seats the Ds think they can win
Included in their list is Brat (VA5, Gianforte (MT), Love (UT4), Culberson (TX . .), Faso (NY19), Tenny (NY22), and Lance (NJ).
That’s 25.
Was on their list, Watkins (KIS3) appears safe, 2 CA districts appear safe.
D-R flips: MN1 and MN3 (I think), AZ1
That’s 22.
Close to D-R flips: MN7, NV3, FL13
Conclusion: I think they get all of Group 1 (18), +2 tossups (20) minus at least two of the D-R flips (18), and give them two of group 3.
However, if Baris’s early sampling holds up, we could come out of FL with +1, which would be a final of . . . 15, or, exactly where I had it.