Polls Don’t Matter, Votes Do

RUSH: I’m watching Fox. Peter Doocy’s doing a story on Florida governor Rick Scott and his campaign for Senate against the mummified Bill Nelson who’s been there 46 years, I think, or whatever it is. And it’s interesting. Trump is saying (summarized), “You know, during the hurricane down there, I got a call from Rick Scott. He’s the governor. But I never heard from the senator. I never heard from Bill Nelson. Vote for Scott.” But here’s the news with Rick Scott, and it’s from Fox News: “Rick Scott Takes Rare Lead in Last-Minute Florida Senate Poll, as Toss-ups Dominate the Map.”

“Why,” I say sarcastically, “I thought there was a blue wave that we were all gonna be swamped by and that we were gonna be drowned and unable to reach the surface tomorrow night. What is this ‘toss-ups’?” But more importantly here: “Florida Republican Senate candidate Rick Scott, who currently serves as the state’s governor, has narrowly pulled ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in a new poll released Saturday — the first major survey in two weeks to show Scott leading, and a positive sign for Republicans as they seek to retain control of the Senate.”

I need to remind you of a truism that I often annunciate: When we get this close to the election, starting about a week out, that’s when you can start trusting the polls. That’s when they have to be concerned about their reputations, those who still are. Not all of them are. Some of them are so partisan they’ll worry about their reputation later. But most of them… All of these polls that we have faced and dealt with all this year have been designed to shape public opinion.

They’ve been designed to create in your mind the expectation of a blue wave. It’s been designed to make you think that the country has sobered up, the country has realized it’s mistakes in voting for Trump and Republicans, and it’s time now to get serious. That happens to be Obama’s message and the others. So the polling showing a blue wave and Democrats winning here and there and everywhere is designed to make that you think it’s essentially over, that the statistics on midterm elections are true.

The party out of power wins big; this is no exception. Those polls could in no way… Let me qualify. Rarely can those polls be correct because the events that shape elections haven’t even come close to happening yet. I mean, I get bored by listening to polling reports from July, June, January. I really resent that polling results have become news, and the fact that poll results are news, to me, are proof of the purpose of polls today, which is to shape public opinion, not reflect it.

In every one of these preelection polls, the Republicans are gonna get swamped, right? Republicans don’t have a prayer. “I mean, they might even lose the Senate in addition to losing every seat in the House!” The Democrats were gonna pick up 200 seats, said one poll, in a purposely mis-composed headline. Well, now we are a day out, and beginning about seven days ago, the polls start looking differently, don’t they? Isn’t it amazing? All the races seem to tighten up, and all the people who were promising slam dunks start hedging their bets.

Because they were making it all up a month ago and two months ago. They were reporting their hopes. They were reporting their dreams. They were getting polls results that reflected their desires. Anybody who runs a poll can get any result they want. It all depends on the sample and how you ask the questions. But now they have to be concerned about their reputations. Now they have to be able to say (when elections are over) that they called it, that they were the closest, that they were the most accurate.

So now these races have tightened up and toss-ups and “Eh, we don’t know!” Even Nate Silver… I’m getting ahead of myself here. Even Nate Silver is kind of gone poof and said, “You know, yeah, it was 86% last week Democrats win the House, but it could go either way.” He’s essentially taken it down to 50-50, which means, “I don’t know.” So back to the Rick Scott poll here. “Rick Scott has narrowly pulled ahead of Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in a new poll released [over the weekend] — the first major survey in two weeks to show Scott leading…

“The results, from St. Pete Polls, give Scott a lead of 49.1% percent to 47.5%, within the margin of error… Conversely, the same group of likely voters surveyed by St. Pete Polls preferred Democrat Andrew Gillum to Republican Ron DeSantis in the state’s [governor’s race 48-43] with 3.7% undecided.” Then it goes on to talk about how Kyrsten Sinema is leading McSally by three… No, no, no. They’re tied statistically. The point is, has Rick Scott ever really been this far behind?

Nobody knows. Now, it may not be bad that it’s made to look like Scott is coming back and mounting a late challenge, but how does that…? Nobody really knows that because nobody’s voted yet. I hate it tell you, but who’s gonna win tomorrow has already been determined. We just don’t know the result yet ’cause the voting hasn’t happened. The people know how they’re gonna vote. And even if they don’t know how they’re gonna vote, the people that are gonna vote are gonna vote, and it’s gonna determine who wins. And nobody knows what that’s gonna be.

God knows — if he cares. But the idea that somebody can be mounting a late challenge? Based on what? So much of this is just smoke and mirrors made to look like a horse race, when it isn’t. The election takes place in one day over the course… Well, with early voting it’s longer than that, and that’s another factor where some of this early polling can actually come in and be even more effective in terms of shaping public opinion.

But the point is, Rick Scott has now pulled ahead, if he was ever behind. We don’t know. But up until today, this past weekend, Rick Scott was dead! Rick Scott didn’t have a prayer to win the Republican Senate seat in Florida. Bill Nelson was a slam dunk until this past weekend. My only point is, nobody really that. So the bottom line is: Don’t believe or trust anything that you see or hear experts tell you, because nobody knows — and votes do matter.

RUSH: So just got this. Right here from the New York Post: “New Poll Gives Dem[ocrat]s Smallest Lead Yet Before Midterms.” (Gasp!) “A new poll released on the eve of the midterm elections shows Democrats with their smallest lead so far in generic congressional races. Forty-three percent of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, compared to the 40 percent who would opt for the Republican candidate, a Politico/Morning Consult poll out Monday shows.”

Now, why is anybody taking a generic ballot poll today? Why the…? The generic ballot poll in December, January, February makes some sense. I mean, I think the poll then is irrelevant anyway, but there are names on the ballots now! Now, I know there are a lot of people like in Rio Linda who don’t know who their congressman is, and some may not know who their senators are. I get all that. But what is the point of a generic ballot?

It’s because it may be the only place they can show the Democrats with a lead! It’s three points, and 18% are undecided on this thing. “Eighteen percent were undecided in the survey taken between October 30 and November 2. Other polls taken in roughly the same time frame show Democrats with a more significant edge going into Tuesday’s elections. An ABC/Washington Post survey of registered voters conducted between October 29 and November 1 has Democrats with a nine-point lead. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters surveyed between November 1 and 3 found Democrats ahead by six points.”

Democrats had an eight-point lead in last month’s Politico poll, and their poll now is down to three points. Okay. Three generic ballot poll the weekend before the midterms. I don’t know. Maybe it’s standard operating procedure. Seems rather odd to me. But let’s start here with the big news on all of this. Well, one story first. This is from the Democrats’ campaign arm, the Associated Press. The headline: “Trump Stumps in Cities That Don’t Look that Much Like U.S.”

Now, what the hell is that? This is two days old. So this story is from Saturday. “President Donald Trump is in the final stretch of a 44-city blitz for the midterm elections, but the America he’s glimpsed from the airport arrivals and his armored limousine is hardly a reflection of the nation as a whole.” Forty-four cities that Trump visiting do not represent America! Forty-four! “The president has mostly traveled to counties that are whiter, less educated and have lower incomes than the rest of the United States, according to Census Bureau data.

“It’s a sign that he is seeking to galvanize the same group of voters that helped carry him to victory in 2016.” Let me translate. Trump is only visiting Deliverance movie sets because all of you people that voted for Trump are a bunch of white, racist, stupid-ass pigs, and that doesn’t look like America anymore. The Democrats are saying, “We’re getting rid of you poor people. We’re getting rid of you poor white people, and we’re replacing you with people like on the caravan. It’s gonna take a while, but that’s our objective. And we’re gonna wipe you out of political relevancy.

And Trump is desperate to hang on because only stupid people fall for Donald Trump. Only stupid people buy into Donald Trump’s agenda.” What a racist headline! So “white” cities are not America anymore. Somebody wrote this, somebody at the AP thinks this, some editor, some writer, somebody thinks this. Trump is stumping in 44 cities that don’t look much like the United States. Pure racism. A pure racist headline. You want to hear some of the cities that they mentioned here?

Cleveland, Tampa, Nashville, Houston? Filled with nothing but white poor people? Putting aside the mendacity of these claims, why doesn’t the AP ever wonder why Democrats don’t reach out to whites? Huh? Why is it that the Democrat Party is trying to get rid of white voters? The Obama made the decision the November of 2011 to get rid of the white working class voter segment. Big story by Thomas B. Edsall in the New York Times where they acknowledged going forward that the Obama campaign the Democrat Party was gonna try to come together as a massive coalition of minority groups.

And they were going to toss aside the traditional blue-collar white working-class voters, men and women, because they thought they were headed to being minorities. And the Democrats didn’t want to hang on to a fading, failing demographic. And so now… You think I’m making it up when I tell you that the left here is out to transform America away from the way it was founded, that they believe the sin of this country is solely poised by white people.

All the sins of this country can be found in white America from the days of our founding, and that’s what they are hell-bent on transforming. Do not doubt me on this. And, meanwhile, they call us the racists and the discriminators and so forth. This is just… I don’t know. I run out of descriptions for this kind of thing. “Trump…” Back to the AP.

Trump has largely eschewed the big metropolises for smaller cities. He has been to Tampa, Nashville, Cleveland and Houston — where the arenas could accommodate his crowds. But he’s primarily been jet-setting to smaller places such as Elko, Nevada…. Or, Mosinee, Wisconsin … Or, Belgrade, Montana,” i.e., flyover country, the boonies. Never mind the fact that Trump is trying to campaign for Republican senate candidates in these places whose votes are just as powerful as any other senators no matter what hayseed place they come from.

(impression) ‘What does Trump think he’s doing campaigning in such backwater places? Why couldn’t he go to sophisticated places like Chicago, or Obama’s proper? How many get shot every weekend and nobody cares? By the way, people of color are the ones getting shot and nobody cares.” “Here is a portrait of the America that the president is seeing…” I’m reading from the AP story: “Lower incomes — Trump has journeyed to counties where it’s slightly more of a struggle to reach and stay in the middle class.”

He’s traveling to places where people have “fewer college degrees.” That makes them smarter, if you ask me. “Of the 43 places Trump is visiting, 28 have a below-average share of college graduates.” It’s outrageous that Trump is campaigning for those people! It is outrageous that Trump cares about poor people and cares about the people that may not be as well educated, as sophisticated liberals. It’s outrageous! Wait. I thought that’s who liberals cared about. I thought it was the liberals who cared about the downtrodden, the ill-educated, the poor, stupid, thirsty, hungry.

I thought the liberals owned that. They’re mad at Trump for going and telling those people it’s their country, too? They’re mad at Trump for going there and telling those people they can “Make America Great Again”? We’re talking about the people who make America work, and these people are just livid. So Trump’s going to 44 cities, according to the AP, that do not look like America. That headline may as well be written by the Democrat National Committee.

There’s no difference between the Associated Press and the Democrat Party or the American left or any of the television networks, and this is who they are. They insult you. (impression) “You are the people that were so stupid, you didn’t realize the opportunity we had to elect Hillary Clinton as president. You’re so stupid, you’re so selfish, and that’s why we hate you.” And make no mistake. For all of this talk from the media and the left and how they hate Trump, it’s really you, folks, that voted for him.

It’s really you that they hate. And it’s you they haven’t given a rat’s rear end about learning who you are. It’s you. They haven’t ventured out to where you live to find out why you’re voting the way you are so that they might try to change your mind and persuade you. No, they are writing you off because you’re uneducated, you’re poor, you’re barely in the middle class. Yuk! Who do we want to do with you? But yet that’s who the Democrat Party was always said to be looking out for, isn’t it? Literally, literally… You want to talk about offensive and enraging?

Okay. I just had to share that with you because that goes hand in hand with these people revising the generic ballot down. You remember, ladies and gentlemen… (interruption) Have audio sound bite No. 11 standing by. Do you remember last week — it might now be the week before last — on the Drudge Report there was a gigantic headline: “Nate Silver gives Democrats 86% chance of winning the House, Republicans 14% chance of keeping the House”?

Eight-six percent! Nate Silver. Do you know that Nate Silver has never conducted a poll in his life? I don’t mean… I’m not being critical. I’m telling you who he is. Nate Silver does not run a polling unit and never has. Nate Silver… And I forget. I think it was the 2014 election or the 2012 election. One of the recent elections, Nate Silver happened to call every state correct in terms of who was gonna win it, and I don’t know if it was a presidential race or a… I think it was. He’s living off that one election where he got everything right.

He hasn’t come close since then. He does not run a polling unit. He was working for… Was it Politico when that happened? And then he went to the New York Times, and that didn’t work out, then he went to ESPN, and that didn’t work out, then he started the FiveThirtyEight website, wherever that is. He’s been traveling around. But I think he’s never has conducted a poll. He just takes existing polling data and his reputation is that there’s nobody but nobody who can dig into all that data and translate it for people as to what it actually mean’s.

And he did it in that one election. So that’s why he’s now considered a guru. And when liberals panic near elections, which they are right now, it’s Nate Silver they consult. Well, I hate to tell you, but yesterday TheHill.com headline: “Nate Silver Says Dem[ocrat]s Could retake House, or Not,” they could take it or they could lose it, “‘Both Extremely Possible.’” Wait a minute. What happened to 86% chance the Democrats win it? He said: Well, “no one should be surprised if [the Democrats] only win 19 seats…”

They need 23. He said, “[N]o one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats. Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world.” What? Whoa, whoa, whoa! I thought based on you how accurate polls out…? I thought that was Nate Silver’s extraordinary expertise to tell us which polls were right and wrong.

Nobody knows anything and Nate Silver here is admitting it. Poof. Bye-bye, 86%. Bye-bye. Nate Silver doesn’t want to stand by it. They all remember what happened to ’em in 2016 where they had 92% chance Hillary wins at 6 p.m. on Election Day. All these polls a month ago, two months ago, are garbage in, garbage out. Here is Nate Silver on This Week yesterday with George Stephanopoulos, who said, “Okay. You’re up 85% for the Democrats taking the House. So break down statistically, Nate, what that means.”

SILVER: The range of outcomes in the House is really wide. Our range, which covers 80% of outcomes, goes from on the low end about 15 Democratic pickups all the way up to the low to mid-fifties, 52 or 53. Most of those are above 23, which is how many seats they would need to take the House, but like — but no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats. Those are both extremely possible based on how accurate polls are in the real world.”

RUSH: Nate Silver cannot tell you who’s gonna win any more than anybody else can. But that 86% — and Drudge is still running that headline. Right there it is on the Drudge Report: “Silver: 86% Chance Democrats Win the House, GOP 14%.” But Nate has modified it. We move on. Here’s Rick Klein, the ABC News political director, about the 2018 midterm elections. Stephanopoulos says, “Okay, the polls aren’t right. The polls have a wide margin of error, in part because this race is very hard to model the turnout for a midterm election, right?”

KLEIN: Democrats are depending on groups that don’t typically turn out in midterm elections. Bottom line, George, they need them to vote. We’re talking about younger voters, we’re talking about nonwhite voters. Right now, they’re telling pollsters that they’re likely to vote in unprecedented numbers, but that just hasn’t been the history. They need those to folks show up.

RUSH: Wait a second. How do we ever get to a blue wave, if it’s this tentative that this group of people show up, if it’s not common that this group that the Democrats need to show up, it’s not common they show up, thenwhere’d this blue wave come from? Where was the confidence they’re all gonna show up and now it’s not there, (impression) “Well, you know, George, they need these people to turn out. We’re talking about younger voters, nonwhite, the smart people, you see, younger voters, nonwhite.”

Right now they’re telling pollsters they’re likely to vote in unprecedented numbers, that that just hasn’t been the history. They need to show up. Media to voters, please show up. Those of you who are smart and not white, please show up for Democrats and we at ABC need you. Moving over to Slay the Nation, CBS. Fill-In Host John Dickerson talking to their elections director Anthony Salvanto, and Dickerson says, “You’ve done a survey of the House races. What does your survey show, Anthony?”

SALVANTO: The Democrats go into Tuesday in position to take control, even if narrowly —

RUSH: Hold it a minute. Hold it a minute. Stop the tape. I just saw the clock. I’ve gotta take a break. Otherwise I’m in deep doo-doo.

RUSH: Okay. Anthony Salvanto, I’m just gonna tell you what he said ’cause I want to get to the next bite. Salvanto said, “The Democrats go into Tuesday in position to take control, even if narrowly. So, right now, they would get to 225. That’s just a few seats over the 218… There’s a margin of error on that estimate, and that leaves a very plausible scenario in which Republicans retain control…” A plausible scenario in which Republicans maintain control! I’m telling you, this is when you pay attention to polls, because they worry about their reputations.

ll this crap that’s been in the polling data for the past months is a bunch of efforts to shape opinion, not reflect it. But today they can’t afford to be dramatically wrong for their own representation. Here’s F. Chuck Todd on the Today Show. Let’s see. This was… I guess it was… Maybe it was today. Yeah, this was the Today show today, not Meet the Press, and Hoda Kotb wants to know from F. Chuck about the polls and President Trump if he’s on the ballot or what’s going on.

TODD: We may cross a hundred million total vote. That is, you know, was only, I believe, in the ’96 and then 2000 presidential elections that we caused the hundred million mark in presidential elections; so it’s that big a deal. And here’s the thing. And I don’t say this just as a cop-out. When you have a turnout like this it’s gonna make pollsters look ridiculous not because they don’t do a good job because you cannot accommodate for all these new voters.

RUSH: Well, when did you figure that out? Just now? So all of a sudden we have no idea if our polls are right, we have no idea if our polls are right, we have no idea about Missouri or Florida. We have no idea because so many people may vote, so many more people, we have… We don’t know. We don’t know? No, folks, don’t misunderstand. These people have known that the Democrats winning the House is a lock for the last nine months! So what’s happened to that?

RUSH: Look at this! Look at this! CNN right now is running a poll for 2020: “Massive Gender Gap Shows New Trouble for Trump in 2020.” That’s two years from now! “Massive gender gap…” Let me tell you something. You know, there’s a Democrat gender gap and it happens to be immigration, and it happens to move white suburban women to the Republican side. Trump’s position on immigration. “Massive gender gap”? Have they given up on the blue wave? Are they now starting to campaign against Trump on 2020 over at CNN? Yeah, there are two women talking; Gloria Borger all hot to trot about it. Amazing.

RUSH: By the way, do you know who else is coming back, who has looked like he was gonna lose for the past year? That’s the governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker. But all of a sudden the guy who’s won every election he’s run, all the recall elections, all the regular elections, Scott Walker… They’ve had the guy the kid and buried for the past year, but all of a sudden there’s a poll out that shows him in the lead, damn it!

No one knows if the polling firms suddenly regained credibility after total blowout humiliation of Hillary’s landslide victory in 2016-—that wasn’t.

True, a poll employee coming up to a white man next a crowd of people on the street and asking: “Are you for that racist supremacist Trump we all hate around here, or not?”
“uh, no.” might not be accurate.

The numbers people keep throwing out there are strange to me.

The Senate is going to be +11.

I think we’re going to see a massive pick up in the House. I think the “safe” districts in the “Leans” or “Mostly” category are so dramatically under polled or intentionally mispolled, that unless it’s a 15 point lead for the blue candidate, no chance in most states.

I’m feeling like pretty much all the “swing” and “last minute” deciders are going to be about 90-95% sanity and break red. And right now, in most races, we’re looking at anywhere from 10-40% in that category.

The press has so missed the fury of the right and the disgust of the middle at the actions of the left for the last two years, that they are literally polling democrat strongholds in the hopes of driving votes. There are very few undecideds. Unannounced, plenty. Undecided, no.

I think we may see unprecedented gains from the party in control. It should be interesting.

It seems hard for me to understand how any Rat in a competitive district has a compelling “vote for me” argument! “Trump is bad!’ just doesn’t cut it. The only reason I can see to vote for the Rat is the GOP’er is so bad that novelty is better. I think there are very few of those districts.

Got to my polling place this morning at 7.

I spent about a minute in line, and then got to vote.

I was number 99.

Last time, they cleared 600 for the day. They opened at 6:30.

Very conservative enclave of a deep blue district.

My polling place is at 3/4 of the numbers it pulled in the special election earlier this year by 1pm. And that was a very very high turn out for it..

And none of the local races are really considered competitive, so this is all being driven by national trends...

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