As expected. Maybe even a little better because the delta over 2016 is about 5% bigger now than going in this weekend.
Anyway, note on Methos8’s spreadsheet that there’s a blue shift in mail-in votes, and a red shift in in-person votes. Some of that could be R’s energized and preferring to show up in person. But...
I could dig up the reference links proving this story - but I have a job and need to get back to that soon - will dig up tonight if you really want -
NC had the same phenomenon in 2014 and again in 2018. Redder in-person voting, bluer mail-in ballots. In fact, the 2014 mail-in ballots were significantly bluer than they were in 2016. What gives?
Turned out, these mail-in ballots were dominated by the downright geriatric (80+ year olds). The old-timers had registered Democrats, but never bothered to change their party registration and were now red voters. This was the case in 2014, is the case again in 2018 in NC. I did a thorough analysis of NC demographics last night, and determined that they were redder than 2016 by a full 3 percentage points (if the person voted the same way in 2016 given their demographic). However, because of the elderly dominance in mail-in ballots, their overall EV R/D/I percentages understates this effect, as it did in 2014.
The parallel split between NC and FL this year are interesting. I’m not suggesting we’re seeing the same phenomenon in FL that we are in NC, where these D ballots are actually geriatric Republicans long registered Democrat voting. But it is something to hope and watch for.
Ping to #52. I will dig up the references to this NC phenomenon, and proof that it was occurring in 2014, if you are interested.