Posted on 11/05/2018 6:15:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Going by % who have voted comparing ‘16 and ‘18.
Total VBM/EV: ‘18 total vote is 77.1% of ‘16 total vote
Extrapolating that out to ED vote would mean 77.1% of ‘16 ED tally which was 2.757M which = 2.125M
So I would expect somewhere in the 2.1-2.2M on ED.
According to Couvillon, Rs returning ballots about 2% better than Ds.
10:00 update, Ds lead by 24,755. Picked up just under 1,000.
With the red counties now open today, I estimate that is the high water mark and they will drift down to probably 21,000 by first posting tomorrow.
That’s an improvement of 73,000 over 2016.
Fresh air coming through the windows of my study. What is that aroma? The smell of Victory.
Yes but it will be interesting to see if votes have been taken from election day and moved up because more Republicans ‘early voted’ this year than usual.
This is the first year I’ve voted early (AZ). Why? Because my wife is conservative but often gets busy and just doesn’t think to vote. I also found out I could check online and find if my early vote was accepted. So my wife and I filled out our ballots at the table one evening, discussed and researched ballot issues while filling out the ballots, and I mailed them both in - and checked to ensure both were accepted.
I plan on doing the same regularly from here out. I’d prefer tough voter ID laws with everyone voting on Election Day, but that ain’t gonna happen! Since it isn’t, why not go for convenience and for getting my wife “to the polls”?
You seem very certain of the future. I have my doubts that having millions of people vote before the election is going to continue to make sense.
There is very significant support for ending early voting and it's continuing to build. Having a millions of people early vote is exposing the fallacy in this practice. The President is set on cleaning up elections and this can't even be discussed without considering the open door to corruption that is presented by early voting.
So you may want to prepare to be surprised at what happens in the future with early voting.
See my earlier post regarding this issue.
Hannity and Rush should put an “R” in the middle of their MAGA hats tonight...
We have low information voters too and some “I” switching to our party. Let them know a straight “R” vote will keep President Trump AND the country strong.
Oh, and thanks for all the excellent work you do Speedy - it keeps us going.
Listen at 78 years young, the wife and I both appreciate “Mail-In” voting. In Florida when you reach the age of 75 years, the state election division, gives you the option to vote by Mail-In ballot. We took it. You get your ballot about three to four weeks before election day...fill it out, sign it, and mail it in.
About a week or so after it is mailed, you can go online and verify that it has been received & processed. Makes life easy for old dudes and lassies like us!!!
In 2018 there was a total of 5 million advance votes cast so far. The Dems have received 40.6% to the Reps 40.1%, a .5% vote advantage. So the Reps have gained almost a 1% advantage compared to 2016. Not too shabby.
As expected. Maybe even a little better because the delta over 2016 is about 5% bigger now than going in this weekend.
Anyway, note on Methos8’s spreadsheet that there’s a blue shift in mail-in votes, and a red shift in in-person votes. Some of that could be R’s energized and preferring to show up in person. But...
I could dig up the reference links proving this story - but I have a job and need to get back to that soon - will dig up tonight if you really want -
NC had the same phenomenon in 2014 and again in 2018. Redder in-person voting, bluer mail-in ballots. In fact, the 2014 mail-in ballots were significantly bluer than they were in 2016. What gives?
Turned out, these mail-in ballots were dominated by the downright geriatric (80+ year olds). The old-timers had registered Democrats, but never bothered to change their party registration and were now red voters. This was the case in 2014, is the case again in 2018 in NC. I did a thorough analysis of NC demographics last night, and determined that they were redder than 2016 by a full 3 percentage points (if the person voted the same way in 2016 given their demographic). However, because of the elderly dominance in mail-in ballots, their overall EV R/D/I percentages understates this effect, as it did in 2014.
The parallel split between NC and FL this year are interesting. I’m not suggesting we’re seeing the same phenomenon in FL that we are in NC, where these D ballots are actually geriatric Republicans long registered Democrat voting. But it is something to hope and watch for.
Ping to #52. I will dig up the references to this NC phenomenon, and proof that it was occurring in 2014, if you are interested.
Split ticket Andrew Gillum wins the Florida Governorship, and Rick Scott wins the Florida US Senate seat?(Is that right?)
Florida will suffer under Andrew Gillum’s polices.
I’m voting Straight Republican tomorrow in FLA.
Please, God, allow the Republicans to win races statewide/local, and really the Florida Governorship and the Florida US Senate seat!!!
And let the US Congress stay in Republicans hands and not the Democrats...
DeSantis will beat Gillum by more than Scott will beat Nelson. The Wilder/Bradley effect will be significant.
“Isn’t it odd how democrats always pull ahead on the LAST day by just a few thousand votes?”
That’s because they wait until the last day for the dead voters to send in their votes/S
Okay, but will the two statewide races be enough to avoid the recount and counteract DEM last minute fraud?
There were several Dem heavy counties in Florida that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016. Smaller counties.
I don’t think a recount will be necessary.
Old McDonalds analysis from early voting: http://www.electproject.org/2018_analysis
It is a long read. Does offer much.
2 main things from his article:
McSally is in good shape in AZ. Heller has difficulties. But we know both of these.
Some Florda stats from him:
“In 2016, registered Democrats held a +1.5 point lead in the early vote and Trump (R) won by +1.2 points. In 2014, registered Republicans held a +2.8 lead in the early vote and Scott (R) won +1.1 points.”
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