Florida Early Vote update, 11/05/2018

https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion ^ | 11/05/2018 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Totals for Florida early vote.

Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 62,471

In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 87,160

Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 24,689

At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 88,012

Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.

Ballots have not been counted yet.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Nice. That 51% will be in line tomorrow.

Also, Morning Consult has a generic ballot poll out. Shows only D+3. https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/181064_crosstabs_POLITICO_Registered-Voters_v1_ML-2.pdf

That sounds about right to me. CNN is out with their trash polls. LA Times must only be polling the LA area for their national generic ballot.

[Methos8]

As of this am, over 1.3m registered voters in FL have yet to vote, even though they’ve voted in the last 4 general elections. 51% of them are Republicans.

Yup. I am in that bucket! I'm assuming that is something like 51% Rep, 35% Dem and 14% independent. If we see Election Day turnout 2.5m+ we're in pretty good shape. Was 2.84m in 2014 and 2.96m in 2016.

[precisionshootist]

Isn't it odd how democrats always pull ahead on the LAST day by just a few thousand votes?

I'm sure it doesn't have anything to do with waiting until they have the numbers in so they can add just a touch more to take the lead. Seems I remember a scheme like this worked in Cook county IL in the early sixties. Dems have followed this playbook ever since.

[Rumierules]

By my calculations, if the 1.3 million show tomorrow, at 51% Republicans, 49% non-republicans, then Republicans could take back the DEMs lead of 24,689 by 1,311 even if all non-republicans = DEMs.

So, that analysis is flawed because a certain percentage of those who have not voted are independents. In other words the 1,311 margin for REPs is likely to be larger.

[Methos8]

Sure, but a lot more than those 1.3 million will be voting tomorrow.

[MaxistheBest]

More Republicans than Democrats have voted on election day in the past two statewide elections

[Rumierules]

If DeSantis wins governor, then it should be an excellent sign for Republicans across the country.

[Methos8]

If DeSantis wins governor, then it should be an excellent sign for Republicans across the country.

Agree but I suspect it will be close and by the time we know of any potential DeSantis win we will probably be seeing other stuff across the board.

If DeSantis and Scott win, unless it is just a total blowout, it could play out a lot like 2016 with the returns. The EV gets counted and we're behind, potentially by a lot. Then Election Day votes start coming in and that lead evaporates.

[MaxistheBest]

Right now DeSantis is in trouble...I have not seen one poll that has him up. He did nothing for the first 4 weeks of the campaign. Gillam was able to put out a lot of lies in his ads and DeSantis never countered them...never laid a glove on him. A real shame...Putnam would have buried Gillam in 3 weeks.

[precisionshootist]

I want to add this is the very reason Early Voting MUST be stopped. There is no need to early vote. How can so many people have time to early vote but can't seem to make it to the polls on election day. Early voting exists

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Cook county”

So I have a little story to tell. Just to pass the time.

I grew up in Chicago. During one of the summers I got a job working at City Hall. It was a paper pushing “make work job”. Anyway, the mayor was Jane Byrne. There was going to be this contentious City Council meeting. Protestors were lined up outside the City Council chamber doors waiting to get in.

So what did the Mayor do? She filled the chamber with city employees. My boss asked if I wanted to attend the City Council session that day. I said sure, sounds like fun. I was on the clock and getting paid for it.

There is a stairwell that runs from the Mayor’s office down to the chambers. The stairwell can also be accessed from the Finance chair’s office. So all these city employees (including me) are walking through the finance chair’s office into the stairwell and down to the chambers. We all take a seat. This is before the doors to the chambers are opened to the public.

Finally, when its time for the session to start, the doors to the chambers are open to the public. All these protestors charge in and —— there are no seats for them. They are furious. Finally, the police come in and say the City Council session is about to begin. For “fire safety” reasons, everyone who doesn’t have a seat must leave. Its a fire hazard to have people standings in the aisles.

At the time, I didn’t even know what was going on. I was in high school making $3.35 at this summer job. 1983.

[Ravi]

Yep that was it

[Starboard]

Thanks for the informative update.

[Starboard]

Comparing to 2014 isn’t valid. The turnout this year is more similar to a presidential election year.

**************

Agree. Different ball game this year.

[Methos8]

Lol .. that was good

[Methos8]

I want to add this is the very reason Early Voting MUST be stopped. There is no need to early vote. How can so many people have time to early vote but can't seem to make it to the polls on election day. Early voting exists

Ok .. well prepare to be disappointed. That isn't going to happen.

[hardspunned]

With Trump at 2 or 3 times the support among blacks than the usual Republican the black “souls to polls” might produce some unanticipated results. I’m glad the president was in Florida a couple of days ago.

[Tuxedo]

EV is nice actually especially here in Texas. They just don’t have enough polling places open on Election Day, to which the lines would be ridiculously long. I don’t know to what extent but I’d guess maybe 35-40% of Texans early vote just to avoid the lines.

One other item, I am considered Independent. But would never ever vote D. I used to be in the GOP, but leadership has been iffy the past 10-15 years that I just don’t contribute to them anymore.

My daughter is 19 and this is her first election, she, and the missus all went R. My son in college is 18, asked for an absentee ballot and never received it. Kind of sucks as he is solid R.

[LS]

Clever

[Ravi]

Great story!