Posted on 11/05/2018 6:15:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Nice. That 51% will be in line tomorrow.
Also, Morning Consult has a generic ballot poll out. Shows only D+3. https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/181064_crosstabs_POLITICO_Registered-Voters_v1_ML-2.pdf
That sounds about right to me. CNN is out with their trash polls. LA Times must only be polling the LA area for their national generic ballot.
I'm sure it doesn't have anything to do with waiting until they have the numbers in so they can add just a touch more to take the lead. Seems I remember a scheme like this worked in Cook county IL in the early sixties. Dems have followed this playbook ever since.
By my calculations, if the 1.3 million show tomorrow, at 51% Republicans, 49% non-republicans, then Republicans could take back the DEMs lead of 24,689 by 1,311 even if all non-republicans = DEMs.
So, that analysis is flawed because a certain percentage of those who have not voted are independents. In other words the 1,311 margin for REPs is likely to be larger.
Sure, but a lot more than those 1.3 million will be voting tomorrow.
More Republicans than Democrats have voted on election day in the past two statewide elections
If DeSantis wins governor, then it should be an excellent sign for Republicans across the country.
Right now DeSantis is in trouble...I have not seen one poll that has him up. He did nothing for the first 4 weeks of the campaign. Gillam was able to put out a lot of lies in his ads and DeSantis never countered them...never laid a glove on him. A real shame...Putnam would have buried Gillam in 3 weeks.
“Cook county”
So I have a little story to tell. Just to pass the time.
I grew up in Chicago. During one of the summers I got a job working at City Hall. It was a paper pushing “make work job”. Anyway, the mayor was Jane Byrne. There was going to be this contentious City Council meeting. Protestors were lined up outside the City Council chamber doors waiting to get in.
So what did the Mayor do? She filled the chamber with city employees. My boss asked if I wanted to attend the City Council session that day. I said sure, sounds like fun. I was on the clock and getting paid for it.
There is a stairwell that runs from the Mayor’s office down to the chambers. The stairwell can also be accessed from the Finance chair’s office. So all these city employees (including me) are walking through the finance chair’s office into the stairwell and down to the chambers. We all take a seat. This is before the doors to the chambers are opened to the public.
Finally, when its time for the session to start, the doors to the chambers are open to the public. All these protestors charge in and —— there are no seats for them. They are furious. Finally, the police come in and say the City Council session is about to begin. For “fire safety” reasons, everyone who doesn’t have a seat must leave. Its a fire hazard to have people standings in the aisles.
At the time, I didn’t even know what was going on. I was in high school making $3.35 at this summer job. 1983.
Yep that was it
Thanks for the informative update.
Comparing to 2014 isnt valid. The turnout this year is more similar to a presidential election year.
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Agree. Different ball game this year.
Lol .. that was good
With Trump at 2 or 3 times the support among blacks than the usual Republican the black souls to polls might produce some unanticipated results. Im glad the president was in Florida a couple of days ago.
EV is nice actually especially here in Texas. They just don’t have enough polling places open on Election Day, to which the lines would be ridiculously long. I don’t know to what extent but I’d guess maybe 35-40% of Texans early vote just to avoid the lines.
One other item, I am considered Independent. But would never ever vote D. I used to be in the GOP, but leadership has been iffy the past 10-15 years that I just don’t contribute to them anymore.
My daughter is 19 and this is her first election, she, and the missus all went R. My son in college is 18, asked for an absentee ballot and never received it. Kind of sucks as he is solid R.
Clever
Great story!
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