Posted on 11/05/2018 6:15:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Your lips, God’s ears.
Yep I saw that too...Exactly. Real-time if fun if it goes that way again.
Current status: Kid on Christmas Eve.
No recounts because the Dems will win....Desantis or bust for FL Governor...please God let Desantis/Scott win!!!!
Thanks for the link. I will see if I can do a prediction on what we can expect the final turnout to be like if the early voting / in-person voting are at the same ratios on Election Day, tonight.
That would be nice. I’m just going with my gut of 7.8 or higher for turnout (D,R,I). As far as R turnout, my goal is to hit 90% of R turnout in 2016.
Hurricane hit Bay County (Red) has now hit overall turnout of 40% (catching up with other counties).
Even better, R turnout of R registered voters in Bay is almost at 50%.
Final NV numbers: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrQjdi8VsAAa4pq.jpg
I was expecting a REP deficit of 21,666 in my last estimate.
Deficit came in at 21,559. So the last 5 rural counties came in a bit better than expected. That is 3.4% DEM lead.
I’ve been using a 3.1% goal for Heller to win on Election day. Not quite there, but still winnable.
There has to be a lot of Washoe REP voters who didn’t vote early. They need to turn out in mass tomorrow.
Using numbers from https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics , it seems Washoe already exceeded D in percentage in early votes in 2016. You can double check.
Washoe -
2018 R turnout - 49,256; 2016 EV 57,565 (85.6% of 2016)
2018 D turnout - 47,495; 2016 EV 58,538 (81.4% of 2016)
Clark -
D turnout - 191,151; 2016 EV 243,556 (78.5% of 2016)
R turnout - 143,947; 2016 EV 170,290 (84.5% of 2016)
Overall, they look pretty favorable to me. Remember Heller is an incumbent. If this were an open seat I’d be worried.
I think you have the Ds and Rs reversed for Washoe???
I think the Dem crossover and Indies for that matter will surprise. Surely there are a few who are sane left.
Oops. You’re right. Yeah, Washoe is definitely bucking Clark’s trend.
Washoe -
2018 R turnout - 47,495; 2016 EV 57,565 (82.5% of 2016)
2018 D turnout - 49,256; 2016 EV 58,538 (84.1% of 2016)
Clark -
D turnout - 191,151; 2016 EV 243,556 (78.5% of 2016)
R turnout - 143,947; 2016 EV 170,290 (84.5% of 2016)
In FL, Republicans gained about 1700 votes during panhandle EV today. VBM has been a bit of a wash, Republicans up 500 votes but no Lake, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach or Sarasota yet. So probably a small loss.
We will trail ~25k going into tomorrow.
11/6 morning update
Alachua doesn’t have updated mail.
St. Lucie hasn’t updated since yesterday
EV+Mail D+22,353
Looks like we hold them slightly under 25k
GO VOTE
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
