Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Florida Early Vote update, 11/05/2018
https://fr-companion.wixsite.com/fr-companion ^ | 11/05/2018 | self

Posted on 11/05/2018 6:15:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-115 last
To: Ravi

Your lips, God’s ears.


101 posted on 11/05/2018 1:02:11 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 98 | View Replies]

To: TrumpCoat

Yep I saw that too...Exactly. Real-time if fun if it goes that way again.


102 posted on 11/05/2018 1:07:00 PM PST by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 100 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Current status: Kid on Christmas Eve.


103 posted on 11/05/2018 1:18:15 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 102 | View Replies]

To: ground_fog

No recounts because the Dems will win....Desantis or bust for FL Governor...please God let Desantis/Scott win!!!!


104 posted on 11/05/2018 1:22:16 PM PST by yield 2 the right
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 92 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Thanks for the link. I will see if I can do a prediction on what we can expect the final turnout to be like if the early voting / in-person voting are at the same ratios on Election Day, tonight.


105 posted on 11/05/2018 1:26:38 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 90 | View Replies]

To: TrumpCoat

That would be nice. I’m just going with my gut of 7.8 or higher for turnout (D,R,I). As far as R turnout, my goal is to hit 90% of R turnout in 2016.


106 posted on 11/05/2018 1:32:10 PM PST by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 105 | View Replies]

To: LS

Hurricane hit Bay County (Red) has now hit overall turnout of 40% (catching up with other counties).

Even better, R turnout of R registered voters in Bay is almost at 50%.

https://www.bayvotes.org/


107 posted on 11/05/2018 1:36:04 PM PST by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 79 | View Replies]

To: Ravi; LS

Final NV numbers: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrQjdi8VsAAa4pq.jpg

I was expecting a REP deficit of 21,666 in my last estimate.

Deficit came in at 21,559. So the last 5 rural counties came in a bit better than expected. That is 3.4% DEM lead.

I’ve been using a 3.1% goal for Heller to win on Election day. Not quite there, but still winnable.

There has to be a lot of Washoe REP voters who didn’t vote early. They need to turn out in mass tomorrow.


108 posted on 11/05/2018 2:22:51 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 107 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

Using numbers from https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics , it seems Washoe already exceeded D in percentage in early votes in 2016. You can double check.

Washoe -
2018 R turnout - 49,256; 2016 EV 57,565 (85.6% of 2016)
2018 D turnout - 47,495; 2016 EV 58,538 (81.4% of 2016)

Clark -
D turnout - 191,151; 2016 EV 243,556 (78.5% of 2016)
R turnout - 143,947; 2016 EV 170,290 (84.5% of 2016)

Overall, they look pretty favorable to me. Remember Heller is an incumbent. If this were an open seat I’d be worried.


109 posted on 11/05/2018 2:47:17 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 108 | View Replies]

To: TrumpCoat

I think you have the Ds and Rs reversed for Washoe???


110 posted on 11/05/2018 3:00:00 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 109 | View Replies]

To: TrumpCoat

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrQjdi8VsAAa4pq.jpg


111 posted on 11/05/2018 3:00:46 PM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 109 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

I think the Dem crossover and Indies for that matter will surprise. Surely there are a few who are sane left.


112 posted on 11/05/2018 3:01:16 PM PST by rlbedfor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 98 | View Replies]

To: SpeedyInTexas

Oops. You’re right. Yeah, Washoe is definitely bucking Clark’s trend.

Washoe -
2018 R turnout - 47,495; 2016 EV 57,565 (82.5% of 2016)
2018 D turnout - 49,256; 2016 EV 58,538 (84.1% of 2016)

Clark -
D turnout - 191,151; 2016 EV 243,556 (78.5% of 2016)
R turnout - 143,947; 2016 EV 170,290 (84.5% of 2016)


113 posted on 11/05/2018 3:22:21 PM PST by TrumpCoat (Longtime lurker, numbers junkie)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 110 | View Replies]

To: TrumpCoat

In FL, Republicans gained about 1700 votes during panhandle EV today. VBM has been a bit of a wash, Republicans up 500 votes but no Lake, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach or Sarasota yet. So probably a small loss.

We will trail ~25k going into tomorrow.


114 posted on 11/05/2018 5:35:54 PM PST by Methos8 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UdXilkzGqvvdKBN9Vwe8er64JeycQbLxKGxFy9lTlE/edit#gid=2105128)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 113 | View Replies]

To: Methos8

11/6 morning update

Alachua doesn’t have updated mail.
St. Lucie hasn’t updated since yesterday

EV+Mail D+22,353

Looks like we hold them slightly under 25k

GO VOTE


115 posted on 11/06/2018 4:50:26 AM PST by EaglesTTT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 114 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-115 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson