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It will not only have an effect on China:

One reason the US economy seems to be booming right now is a surge in imports. Companies are rushing to build inventory ahead of the 25% tariff on Chinese goods that takes effect January 1. Coming on top of usual holiday season stockpiling, it is jamming ports, highways, and warehouses—generating many jobs in the process.

That’s all good right now, but those truck drivers and warehouse workers will no longer be necessary once the shelves are stocked. Working down that inventory will take months, at least, and the resulting slowdown could ease the economy into recession next year.

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Oct_26_2018.pdf

I share the concern over debt, but I think that the guy at the link (John Mauldin) makes his living scaring the bears.

His assessment of inventories is worse that what the latest (5 Oct) inventory reports would indicate. They showed the last month reported (August) ratio of inventories to sales, was unchanged at 1.34. That 1.34 is how many months it would take to sell all the inventory on hand. One year ago, the inventory-to-sales ratio was a higher 1.39.

The new and larger round of tariffs was announced in September, and imports have risen marginally, but not to a degree that would themselves dramatically increase inventories in the USA. The bottom line is that how good Christmas sales will be is a bigger factor for inventories, than the effect of stocking up ahead of tariffs.

The tariffs are rolling out in force over a few quarters. Although it is big in total effect, It spreads out the effects of each little niche product going through its cycle of stocking up, and then finding an alternative supplier for future orders. Six to nine months (starting September 2018) of hard steering to turn the supply chain away from China. Globally, that will require a strong stimulus elsewhere to ramp up the production lost from China.

Although Wholesale and retail inventories were up in August, domestic manufacturing inventories were down, as they ramp up production.

There will be some drag in the future quarter from inventory buildup in the prior quarter, but that will be rolling over from one product line to another as tariffs are rolled out, like a bow wave in front of a ship. As one product experiences a slower quarter due to their previous buildup, another product will be experiencing a buildup before their tariffs go into effect. As those products or sectors are going through their inventory cycles, domestic manufacturing will likely see steady gains, as it picks up a share of the former Chinese market.

There will be some adjustment in the short term, for long term gain, but it has been throttled to be manageable for us (for China, not so much).