Posted on 10/27/2018 4:51:03 PM PDT by 11th_VA
If you don’t believe the polls, believe the early voting data. Nevada’s biggest races are going to be close. Here are four observations.
1. Neither side has pulled away. When they win, Nevada Democrats usually establish a large lead in the number of early voters. This can allow them to effectively bank enough votes to win before the polls close. Republicans historically make up ground on Election Day.
In 2016, 27,000 more Democrats than Republicans had cast ballots by the end of the first week of early voting. Coincidentally, Hillary Clinton and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won their statewide races by around 27,000 votes each.
After five days of early voting, just 3,243 more Democrats than Republicans have voted. That’s a huge win for Republicans and worrisome for Democrats. Caveat: A Democrat or Republican voter can always select the other party’s candidates. So while the data are predictive, they’re not perfect. ...
(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...
Helier will win and Trump is popular in NV. We’ve got a week left and things haven’t slowed down...
What’s funny is Nate Silver was crowing on his “538” website when Hillary was posting good early polling numbers this time in 2016. Now when recently asked about the current trends favoring Republicans, he said early voting trends “don’t matter” because the party ahead in early voting is simply cannibalizing votes from election day so it all shakes out in the wash.
It would be great, if all of us voted this time: a huge win! Democrats would be short-circuiting even more. I can’t imagine them providing entertainment even more strange than what we’ve already seen.
Liberals already making excuses for when they lose.
A huge win for Trump will shrink the field of RATcandidates for 2020 ...
Maybe there’ll be a Rat surge on Election Day.
Nate Silver is simply hedging his bets.
it would seem if the dems had a huge enthusiasm edge that it would be showing up in early voting, the opposite is occurring, a d surge could happen but would defy the reality that we see, they would be wiping us out like they did with Obama.
Ping, though you likely already have these numbers.
That guy has the worst record of all and hasn’t learned a damn thing since 2016. Probably paid-for.
well...
That makes no sense. Democrat early voter numbers are down from 4 years ago. It’s idiotic to think that roles are reversed this midterm and that Republicans are early voting and the Democrats are waiting until election day.
It is idiotic. The enthusiasm seems to be on our side. No blue wave.
You are right. If the Dems had enthusiasm they would be following their usual pattern & voting early.
Great observation. Thanks.
This year, not only am I voting, I’m gonna be a poll worker.
They had a huge rally in D.C. today. You can tell the Dems are worried: they claim everyone on the walkaway site is a Russian bot! Lol.
I think more will vote next week, with likely narrowing, but still a GOP edge.
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