Posted on 10/25/2018 9:15:16 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
.........When it comes to the generic-ballot results, however, location matters. Where Democrats dominate, their lead is understandably massive — 30 points, in fact. But in the battleground districts where Democrats expect to pick up seats, that lead evaporates, turning into a five point lead for Republicans, 49/44:
Democratic candidates are preferred by a 30 point margin (60% to 30%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 15 point margin (55% to 40%) in Republican-held districts. In the 11 California districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (49% Republican candidate, 44% Democratic candidate). (Nine of these seats are currently held by Republicans; for more information see page 22). The Democratic candidate is preferred by large margins in Los Angeles (62% to 30%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (60% to 28%), and by narrower margins in Orange/San Diego (53% to 42%). The Republican candidate is preferred by narrower margins in the Inland Empire (50% to 45%); those in the Central Valley (47% Democratic candidate, 46% Republican candidate) are divided.
That’s not the only contraindication to the wave, either. When voters are asked in these competitive House districts whether they want cooperation or confrontation with Donald Trump, they choose cooperation by 22 points, 59/37. Even when asked across the entire state, voters almost evenly split on the question, 45/48 in favor of confrontation. A majority of independents across the state favor cooperation, 51/41. That cuts directly across the Democrats’ message in his election cycle — that the House needs to check the Trump agenda, both through legislation and through investigations.
The GOP lead in battleground districts follows similar national polling from the Washington Post/ABC and NBC/WSJ series. It suggests that the overall generic ballot may be even more representative than usual of Democratic strongholds, while battleground districts might be tilting back to the GOP. Granted, they’d have to tilt significantly over the next dozen days for Republicans to hold the House majority, but it’s not out of the question, either. At the very least, these polls indicate that the “wave” may be more of a big ripple when it finally hits on Election Day.
I expect the GOP to hold the House. If Americans are going to expand GOP control of the Senate, they’re not going to turn the House over to Democrats.
If they hated Trump, all the lead indicators would be the opposite. They aren’t and Trump will get from the voters what he asked for.
And they approve of the job he’s doing.
Nancy Pelosi: “If it hadn’t been for you Bernie kids sending out those verkakte fake bombs, we’d have won this time!”
I hope it’s true.
But the only poll that counts is the actual election.
Don’t get complacent.
Be sure to get out and VOTE!!!
Can we please just nuke the blue areas of this state?
It could be worse.
Democrats and the fake news media are ramping up their anti-Trump hatred.
Americans aren’t buying it. You can’t beat something with nothing.
I agree totally...a new poll in Florida shows DeSantis up by 3 and President Trump’s approval at 53/44 ...+9 in Florida. I’m thinking President is pulling DeSantis along for the ride...best Coattails in history!
Maybe the hispanic vote is abandoning the dems
They are one in the same.
What it amounts to is Americans are sick and tired of “drama.”
This is almost exactly like the time Americans got sick and tired of the constant drama and BS of the Carter years and fully embraced the leadership of that “cowboy” Ronald Reagan.
Ladies and Gentlemen .... I present to you the magic of - Gerrymandering!!
To our Democrat friends (who kept a MASSIVE House majority despite polling 0.5% less of the total House votes than the GOP did in 1984) I’d like to say:
“How do you like it NOW?”
:>)
I just said this on another thread - People here in CA are royally pissed off, for a variety of reasons.
Crowd drowns out anti-Trump Dems Adam Schiff, Brad Sherman at California debates, forcing early end
Trump is popular in battleground states
This will help in critical House races, means wins in states that sermed out of reach and will help him to fulfill his vision to MAGA.
He’s a superb politician and his enemies neither understand him or the bond he built with his voters.
Trump is headed for a historic win.
Ping.
You hit the nail on the head stating that these IDIOTS have NO understanding of the bond Trump has with his supporters, I myself have NEVER seen anything like this WE ALL stand with him no matter what the hell they throw at him!!! It is like this FAKE BOMB episode the first thing in most of our minds right out of the gate was THEY DID IT to discredit Trump!!! It will be found that WE ARE RIGHT!!!
Democrats think the.country hates Trump. They’re in for a rude awakening November 6.
You’re gonna watch the Rats implode and the adversary media cut down to size.
Love it. They’re the most arrogant and conceited people on earth who deserve a sound thrashing. Can’t wait.
Will be more epic and fun than 2016!
Out of the 11 competitive seats 9 are already gop. This means we can lose 9 but only gain 2. Not good odds.
Sounds like the difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College in 2016. Major metropolitan areas and California distort the national vote in favor of the Democrats, but what really matters is the individual battleground races that go in the Republicans' favor.
I’ll take them. In fact, if people like Trump, the House will stay GOP.
Trump is going to drag the party over the finish line and he has coattails.
Obama never had them. That will make all the difference in the world, indeed.
5% is not enough to overcome democrat voter fraud.
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