Nate Silver: 86% Dems takes the House

ABC News ^ | Oct 23, 2018 | Nate Silver

[poconopundit]

Mitchell made his reputation as the “polls guy”. But I’m learning much more reading your early voting analysis.

[LS]

Mitchell stole most of his poll analysis from Baris. At first he gave him credit, then stopped. He also stole my stuff.

[poconopundit]

Thanks, LS, for the tip to Richard Baris, the People's Pundit.

Love the great polling data and perspective on his Twitter page.

[snakechopper]

Here’s Thomas Wictor’s take on this election, now at gab.ai after being wrongly banned on TWITter:

https://gab.ai/Thomas_Wictor/posts/39609156

[lepton]

Many GOP dominant districts are not so populated as those big city Dim districts.

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The populations should be roughly similar. The balance/extremism is what tends to change. Some districts are relatively unified, while others are more balanced. The first will produce large differences in raw votes; the latter still elects one representative per.

[CruiseMates]

Nate Silver also gave Trump a 12% chance of winning on Election day 2016. Not always right (at all)

Go to this recent article by Nate and look at the chart called: How the House has swung historically : 2018 House Forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo#history

Nate Silver is making the argument that democrats have historically won more midterms than republicans going back to 1926.

but IN THE LAST 24 YEARS - the Republicans have WON the MIDTERMS TEN OUT OF TWELVE TIMES. - Six in a row and then four in a row.

Nate does he not see “trends” at all in his polling and that is his fatal flaw. If this chart was for a stock or horse race, I would definitely be betting on RED.