[Ravi]

I hope this information is clear. Any thoughts gentleman?

[smith5460]

Here is what I wrote to Larry Schweikart on twitter earlier today:

I don’t know if the proper comparison of the Nevada vote should be 2018 vs. 2014. In 2014, there was no Senate election, the only competitive House race was the newly-created 4th Congressional District, and the GOP incumbent governor was leading his opponent by 20-25 points.

After looking at the Week 1 turnouts of the 2014, 2016, and 2018 General Elections, it looks like a better comparison would be 2018 vs. 2016.

In comparing 2018 vs. 2016, I’m taking out Esmeralda, Lander, Lyon, Mineral, Nye, and Pershing Counties right now, since the 2018 numbers do not include those counties yet. This way, I can attempt to compare apples to apples as close as possible.

I’m also looking at the party breakdown between Day 1 of the 2018 midterm early voting vs. Week 1 of the 2016 early voting. I could not find the party breakdown of each day of early voting in the 2016 General Election early voting, so this is the best I could do.

In 2018, the total votes from in-person early voting and absent/mailing ballots are 55,445 ballots on October 20th (First Day of early voting). The party breakdown is 43.6% D, 38.95% R, and 17.45% I.

In 2016, the total votes (not including the six aforementioned counties) from in-person early voting and absent/mailing ballots are 55,445 ballots on the First Week (October 22-28) is 368,645. The party breakdown is 44.2% D, 35.5% R, and 19.47% I.

Comparing 2018 (Day 1) to 2016 (Week 1) yields a percentage shift of -0.6% for the Democrats, +3.45% for the Republicans, and -2.02% for Other.

Now, this is WAY too early to make any definite projections, since we don’t know what the daily party breakdown of the early voting was in 2016. We still need data from the 6 counties which haven’t reported yet. We also need the data from the rest of the 1st Week of 2018.

[ckilmer]

it follows a pattern mentioned by LS around the country. republican early voting is up and democrat early voting is down.

[goldstategop]

If its close, Elko will decide.

Otherwise it comes down to Clark, the principal Rat stronghold in NV.

[11th_VA]

I live in a Blue area, and feel like the RATs are Brown Shirts marching all over. Those of us who love Trump, we’re guerillas, blending in with the dominate Blue Population, waiting for Election Day to vote.

Great data from Nevada - looks like the GOP has finally built a turnout machine.

[Kay]

Thanks for all the info. Much appreciated.

[KC_Conspirator]

This looks more of the same for NV.

[Oscar in Batangas]

Gonna be a TrumpNAMI if we all get to the polls.

(Stormy is getting to her pole)