I disagree that it is an excellent article. The poll numbers for Trump are wrong, the national numbers showing Democrat advantage is completely meaningless when it comes to House races and Republican voters are at least as motivated as Democrat voters. That puts any other analysis they have into question as well.
Thanks for taking time to read the article and provide your analysis (which I agree with).
Perhaps I should have simply recommended to read the article as it contains race-by-race analysis. "Excellent article" certainly implies accuracy.