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Iowa Absentee Ballot REQUESTS (Statewide, IA#1, IA#2) 2018 vs 2016 at equivalent points in election
Iowa SOS ^ | 10/19/18 | me

Posted on 10/19/2018 4:43:34 PM PDT by Ravi

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Statewide Ballot REQUESTS:

10/19/18: D-153,892 R-135,224 I-71,060 10/21/16: D-190,229 R-155,417 I-93,140

IA#1 (Blum-R) seat:

10/19/18: D-42,113 R-30,187 I-21,543 10/21/16: D-49,902 R-34,330 I-26,250

IA#2 (Loebsack-D) seat:

10/19/18: D-39,255 R-30,310 I-15,425 10/21/16: D-52,997 R-35,007 I-24,482

2016 IA#1: Blum won 53.9 to 46.1 2016 IA#2: Loebsack won 53.7 to 46.3

IA#1 absentee Requests seem mostly consistent from 2016 to 2018 with slightly larger Dem/Indy drop-off than Rep but not huge. However Blum won pretty comfortably in 2016 so he just needs to hold serve which he appears to be doing.

IA#2 is interesting but I just don't know hot much to read into the Requests but they are down significantly for the Dems/Indies and less so for GOP. jjotto feels IA#2 is a pipe-dream and he's probably right but still these numbers are a little eye-popping nonetheless.

Statewide looks good compared to 2016...for the governor's election I believe.

1 posted on 10/19/2018 4:43:34 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi; LS; SpeedyInTexas; jjotto

ping. Thoughts? Most Requests in Iowa are returned (over 90%).


2 posted on 10/19/2018 4:45:13 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi
To avoid getting a headache, would you please be willing to interpret such stats for those of us who are tired or mentally lazy at the moment?

Am mostly interested in the bottom line. Which stats indicate a GOP edge of what % points?

3 posted on 10/19/2018 4:49:55 PM PDT by JockoManning (http://www.zazzle.com/brain_truth for hats T's e.g. STAY CALM & DO THE NEXT LOVING THING)
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To: Ravi

One has to say the numbers look good.

True for early numbers out of NC/FL/AZ/IA.

I’m 223-212 House, 55-45 Senate.

Senate, have ND, MO, IN as pickups. But with Florida’s numbers so good, updating Senate to 55-45 with 4 pickups.

IN has a Lib on ballot. If we don’t pick up IN, the margin will be the Lib votes.


4 posted on 10/19/2018 4:56:55 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Ravi

Looks pretty good for GOP in both districts. I wonder how many Ds voted GOP there, in the past elections. Go Trumpocrats!


5 posted on 10/19/2018 4:57:20 PM PDT by rfp1234 (I have already previewed this composition.)
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To: Ravi

Why use 2016 as the comparison, a Presidential year, versus 2014? That said, the turnout for 2018 appears to be huge.


6 posted on 10/19/2018 5:02:01 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Read LS analysis. There is good reason and data for doing this


7 posted on 10/19/2018 5:06:42 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: Ravi
I think a lot of Trump voters are not responding to the pollsters because the RATs have gone bats#!+ crazy - they don’t want anyone to know their true beliefs (I myself removed the Trump stickers from my car).

This is like a guerilla war, blend in with the sheeple, but when it’s time to strike, VOTE !!!

8 posted on 10/19/2018 5:06:44 PM PDT by 11th_VA ("When passions are most inflamed, fairness is most in jeopardy." - Susan Collins)
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To: kabar

Because of your second statement. All indications pretty much everywhere indicate presidential level turnout.


9 posted on 10/19/2018 5:11:57 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

If previous turnout is an indicator, Blum is safe. Might be possible to flip 2, but a bigger slice out of LoebsCk’s vote would help


10 posted on 10/19/2018 5:12:05 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Ravi

IA CD 2: Six-term incumbent Dem Loebsack faces former Libertarian Chris Peters for the second time. Peters isn’t a strong or well-financed candidate, but seems to be making a smart, cautious campaign. A Peters win would almost certainlyl mean a nationwide GOP trend.


11 posted on 10/19/2018 5:14:33 PM PDT by jjotto (Next week, BOOM!, for sure!)
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To: Ravi

If Lieawatha wins by less than ten percent in Massachusetts I’ll know it’s gonna be a long night for the RATS!


12 posted on 10/19/2018 5:20:39 PM PDT by dowcaet
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To: Ravi

Independent ballot requests are up for the Statewide and Loebsack races.

Overall, Democrats seem to have steeper drop than Republicans in ballot requests from 2016, but have sought more ballots than Republicans in all races.


13 posted on 10/19/2018 5:22:17 PM PDT by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I’m in FL.

Do I vote early in person on Mon to bulk red early #s (shows enthusiasm) or wait until 11/6?

The latter course gives a shorter vote manufacture time.


14 posted on 10/19/2018 5:34:55 PM PDT by gasport (The dung beatle should be the symbol of the Democrat Party)
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To: gasport

The above post applies in all states c/ early in person voting.


15 posted on 10/19/2018 5:36:14 PM PDT by gasport (The dung beatle should be the symbol of the Democrat Party)
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To: Ravi

Not sure how much it matters, but early voting is a fairly recent addition to Iowa. Early votes are counted as absentee ballots.


16 posted on 10/19/2018 5:40:39 PM PDT by cornfedcowboy
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To: gasport

I’m early voting in Texas on Monday. Personally, I can’t wait to cast that vote.


17 posted on 10/19/2018 5:45:42 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Ravi

I looked at it and it looks like Democrat count is out numbering Republican count


18 posted on 10/19/2018 6:13:09 PM PDT by blueyon (The U. S. Constitution - read it and weep)
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To: JockoManning; Ravi

It appears to me the numbers are consistent to possibly suggest numerous DEMs are now voting as INDependents and REPs are matching or exceeding expectations


19 posted on 10/19/2018 6:36:26 PM PDT by Steven W.
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To: BradyLS

Actually Indies are down also.


20 posted on 10/19/2018 6:38:23 PM PDT by Ravi
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