Posted on 10/18/2018 6:34:59 AM PDT by 11th_VA
We went with the name “Drive for 25” as an homage to a 2012 House Democratic slogan and to reflect the fact that while Democrats need to net 23 seats, they probably are going to lose at least a couple of seats they currently hold to Republicans.
(snip)
This year, Republicans appear to be guaranteed at least one pickup: PA-14, an open seat in southwestern Pennsylvania that is a more Republican-leaning version of the old PA-18, the seat now-Rep. Conor Lamb (D) won in a special election in March.
(snip)
Republicans also are targeting two open seats in Minnesota, MN-1 (covering southern Minnesota) and MN-8 (covering the northeastern part of the state, including the traditionally Democratic but GOP-trending Iron Range). The president carried both of these districts by about 15 points. We’re moving one, MN-8, from Toss-up to Leans Republican this week after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee appeared to write off the district. The GOP may very well end up picking up MN-1 as well, which remains a Toss-up. If so, that would mean Democrats would have to win 26 currently Republican-held seats to win the House. Additionally, two competitive, Democratic-held open seats in Nevada, NV-3 and NV-4, seem highly competitive. We still favor Democrats in both but it wouldn’t be a shock if the GOP picked off one or the other. Again, Democrats would have to make up any GOP gains through gains of their own among current Republican seats. ..
(Excerpt) Read more at crystalball.centerforpolitics.org ...
Does this report indicate the magical 26 or so seats currently occupied by Republicans that are predicted to flip?
Election day can’t come fast enough for me. I have a tough time thinking normal people seeing all the crazy things being done by the left and still going to the poll and pulling the lever for D’s.
I know that’s going to happen, but that Trump won gives me hope. No idea what role voter fraud is going to have this time either. If you believe the stories, it was that Trump’s people knew the fix was in, and then intervened to prevent it in four key places that turned the tide of the election.
Tougher to pull off with House races I would think.
That question has been answered by Larry. The answer is 'Yes'.
In Georgia, the Absentee Ballots are 2x the number that they were in the last midterms, 2014.
That’s because there is only 1 poll so far that show’s her down, even though its by 6 points...
The only Senate Red State Democrat with any shot at survival is Manchin, just like it was before any of this Kavanaugh fiasco.
McSally HOUSE seat does lean D.
We are ahead in AZ1, D O’Halleran’s seat. This would be a wash.
We are at 55 Sen right now. But I think at least 2 more will come our way. Then there are 2-3 “tossups.”
Two other groups in MN tell me Lewis is safe.
Thank you! Very good to hear
Jason Lewis is a former radio talk show host of very solid poltical values. Good news
I have gotten multiple mailers from the GOP about voting early and voting by mail in GA. I suspect that absentee vote is not going as heavily Dem in GA as some pundits think it is. The GA GOP make a very strong effort on that front. Getting GOP voters fired up by the Kavaugh show trial to vote right away while they were still pissed at the Ds was a very smart move.
I won't be disappointed because I predicted 10-12 pubbie senate pick ups, but also said I won't be upset if I'm wrong by 25%.
Anything less than a 7 senate seat increase will trigger my violent mode.
I will search for my sunken ship with all of my lost guns, and then look out.
I agree.
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