Yes that’s the quick and dirty apples to apples comparison for today...
Questions for me: what do we expect turnout to be (midterm 50-55%) or presidential level (70-75%)?
That could be a turnout range of 6.5 million all the way to 9.75 million. Huge range.
How does the total ballot Requests factor into this (already 3.2 million Requests). How much cannibalizing is or is not occurring?
How many dead ballots will there be (not returned). Do those voters vote early or election day or not atall?
The enormity of these Requests is just something to behold and difficult to completely get my head around.
The exact questions to be asking.
First, remember Republicans have strongly emphasized absentee and early voting because they found that these voters tend to vote “down ticket” at a much higher rate than election day voters!
Total FL absentee requests are up by 100,000 this year. Again, we don’t know the turnout, but we do know that more people will vote absentee than ever before, and that a MAJOR section of FL (the Panhandle) will likely NOT be voting absentee or early, so I think whatever gains we see in absentees, they are NOT being cannibalized and you will still see a real surge (perhaps more than ever) on election day by the hurricane victims voting later than usual.