Thursday 10/20/16: REPs - 369,467, DEMs - 356,635 lead of 12,832 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.2%
Thursday 10/18/18: REPs - 301,825, DEMs - 258,727 lead of 43,098 for REPs, 44.2% to 37.9%
Fewer ballots returned this year, but a bigger lead.
Republicans ended up with a lead of about 58.3k in 2016, correct? Do you have that data you can send me? If I recall Republicans pushed our lead in 2016 to around 80k-100k before it came back down a bit the last few days.
I am playing with the math a few different ways, which I can share later, thinking we end up with an advantage around 60k-80k after VBM is completed.
Two reasons for fewer total ballots returned:
1) it’s a mid-term, not a presidential election
2) according to Dem Covillon, the Panhandle is only at 36% of the 2016 total at this time due to the hurricane.
I’m guessing with the temporary voting stations, etc, eventually the walk in, election day, and absentees from these counties will get to 86% of the 2016 total.