Posted on 10/17/2018 12:10:04 PM PDT by Kaslin
It's been noted a million times that Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take control of the House of Representatives in next month's midterm elections. Nearly all analysis has focused on how many seats Republicans might lose.
Less noticed is the fact that the GOP will likely pick up a small number of seats in congressional districts that buck the predicted national trend by changing from Democrat to Republican. Any GOP pickups will probably be few and far between. But if the race for House control tightens in coming weeks, they could be critical.
The Republicans' best chance to pick up a Democratic seat is in the sprawling, 27,000-square-mile 8th District of Minnesota. The district has been represented since 2013 by a Democrat, Rep. Rick Nolan. Nolan has had one of the more unusual careers in the House: He was first elected in 1974; served until 1980, when he chose not to run for re-election; took a 32-year break to pursue private business; and then ran for and won his old seat in 2012. Now, at age 74, he has decided to retire again.
Running for the Democrats -- in Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party -- is Nolan's former campaign manager, a former state house representative named Jim Radinovich. For the Republicans, there is Pete Stauber, a member of the St. Louis County Board of Commissioners.
Polling in September showed the race very close. But a recent New York Times poll found Stauber with a 15-point lead, 49 percent to 34 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Stauber led with men, with women, with voters who had a college degree and with those who didn't.
It's been noted a million times that Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take control of the House of Representatives in next month's midterm elections. Nearly all analysis has focused on how many seats Republicans might lose.
Less noticed is the fact that the GOP will likely pick up a small number of seats in congressional districts that buck the predicted national trend by changing from Democrat to Republican. Any GOP pickups will probably be few and far between. But if the race for House control tightens in coming weeks, they could be critical.
The Republicans' best chance to pick up a Democratic seat is in the sprawling, 27,000-square-mile 8th District of Minnesota. The district has been represented since 2013 by a Democrat, Rep. Rick Nolan. Nolan has had one of the more unusual careers in the House: He was first elected in 1974; served until 1980, when he chose not to run for re-election; took a 32-year break to pursue private business; and then ran for and won his old seat in 2012. Now, at age 74, he has decided to retire again.
Running for the Democrats -- in Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party -- is Nolan's former campaign manager, a former state house representative named Jim Radinovich. For the Republicans, there is Pete Stauber, a member of the St. Louis County Board of Commissioners.
Polling in September showed the race very close. But a recent New York Times poll found Stauber with a 15-point lead, 49 percent to 34 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Stauber led with men, with women, with voters who had a college degree and with those who didn't.
It's a message Trump has sent personally. When he visited Duluth in June, he announced that he would reverse proposed Obama environmental rules concerning the Superior National Forest and would "restore mineral exploration for our amazing people and miners and workers and for the people of Minnesota."
Stauber also pledges strong support for law enforcement and for the military -- his wife, Jodi, served 20 years in the Air National Guard and deployed to Iraq in 2009. He also supports Trump on immigration.
On health care, I asked Stauber if, had he been in the House in recent years, he would have voted to repeal and replace Obamacare. "Not necessarily," he answered. "In order to repeal and replace, you have to have something better." He pledged to seek solutions, like protections for people with pre-existing conditions, on which there is bipartisan agreement.
Put it all together, and Stauber appears to be in one of those rare spots where Republicans can play offense rather than defense. There are a few other districts -- another in Minnesota, a couple in Nevada, one in New Hampshire -- with similar situations. But none are quite so perfectly suited for GOP victory as Minnesota 8. Perhaps a Republican win won't matter in the scheme of things. But it's also possible that, in a close race, it might make all the difference in the world.
AZ1 Wendy Rogers is up 3 on O’Halleran. That would be a pickup.
Two NV seats are very close to flipping, Hardy and Tarkanian in tossups in their races.
IA1 now appears to be coming into play.
FL7, I’m told, is a possible flip.
Elizabeth Heng in CA is very close. Fighting an opponent who only talks local stuff, mostly water.
Sabato, Jr. is a possible flip in Ventura.
Well, the 2016 election taught us that it “ain’t over ‘till the fat lady sings...” — we shall see.
The Dems have a very small chance of taking the House.
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Byron is about as ‘smart’ as he looks.
The House will be dipped in Red paint!
Dems in freefall!
.
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Dems have no chance.
GOP will take way more seats than they lose.
very well said
PA 18 is another possible pickup. It is a red district in Western PA, and flipped to Fem a few months ago in a special election with a low turnout and a ton of outside money.
The Dem rep Conner Lamb has only been in office for a few months, so there’s a good chance to get that one back.
I think the media narrative lately is pushing the Dems pick up the House but not the Senate. That way they can still push hope is not lost. Then still look half right on Election night
These are the firewall, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a few other flip.
Overall, what do you guys objectively estimate is the current chance of the Repubs holding the HOUSE?
And % chance of Repubs holding the SENATE?
(It’s hard to get an OBJECTIVE opinion on this because the media puts so much spin on it...)
Not hearing good things about Rothfus’s effort there.
We have just witnessed the most transparent and evil event in American Political History and it is difficult for me to imagine any decent, fair person would vote Demon after that debacle.
Well, get used to it cuz there are about 62m of them.
I hope you’re right about FL 7. That’s my district. The incumbent defeated a veteran Republican in 2016. I was shocked at the time but there was a lot of anti GOP sentiment at the time even among Trump supporters so maybe it wasn’t so surprising. That’s the hazard of demonizing your own candidates because you’re not happy with their performance.
With no parachute.
That blow-up in their faces had to effect some one the non-fanatical Demon voters and the only effect it could have would be good.
This should knock the not-really-paying-attention voter out of that frame of mind and draw a clear demarcation between good and evil.
My crystal ball has losing the house 25-30 percent or less, retaining the Senate 75-80 percent or more.
Yeah! And Hillary was a shoo in in 2016. Baaaarf.
The PA17, 18 thing is a mess :-) I’ll straighten it out :-). You can thank the Dems for their legal gymnastics that forced redistricting on PA earlier this year.
Connor Lamb is running for “new” PA 17. He is currently representing the old PA18. New PA18 will more than likely be won by the Democrat known as Mike Doyle.
Old PA18 became PA14 for the most part. Most of this district is the district Connor Lamb won (though he ran as a Republican for the most part ... seriously ... the guy was to the right of center and made some RINOs look like liberals and the R on the ballot seemed as if he felt entitled to the district). There is no way Lamb would win in PA14, so he jumped into the new PA17 race.
PA17 is now a swing county after redistricting. Connor Lamb is running against Keith Rothfus (who is coming over from old PA12). Lamb has a very good shot and is currently winning. Of course, once he’s in the House, he’ll be a Pelosi clone.
Lamb could very well be a new kind of Democrat if the “Democratic Socialists” fracture off from the Dems. He’s certainly a “blue dog” right now, but I can see him swinging far to the left once he’s in. His new district did go for Trump by +2.5, but Lamb did win a district that was north of +20 for Trump.
The GOP blew a chance here in PA ... I have no idea why they went and ignored the whole state ... sad.
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