BTW, polling even in the Generic Congressional Ballot really means the GOP should gain some seats due to the way the districts are set up.
BLUE FLUSH COMING!!!
In the Age of Trump conventional political wisdom needs to be thrown out the door. The GOP will add seats in the House and will be +5 or better in the Senate. The Kavanaugh confirmation hearings was a seminal moment in American politics. For the first time many Americans saw in full display how radical and dangerous the Democrat Party really is! I truly believe the majority of our countrymen don’t want that for America and will not reward the RATS with a majority in the House or Senate.
There never was a blue wave.
Didn’t I hear somewhere that in order for a blue wave to occur the Democrats needed at least a 7 point lead or so in the Generic Ballot?
That gap has hovered in the 6 to 10-point range in recent weeks.
But Democratic voters tend to live in more concentrated areas and the party would typically needs a more significant advantage in the generic ballot number than do Republicans, whose voters are spread through more exurban and rural districts.
>Democrats need a higher share of the midterm vote to win a majority of seats, in other words, than do Republicans.
In 2014, when Democrats led the generic ballot in both CNN and NBC/WSJ surveys by only slim margins, Republicans ended up winning 13 Democratic-held seats.
>The last time Democrats gained significantly, in 2006, the party held a 15-point advantage in both surveys.
By contrast, Republicans enjoyed a generic ballot advantage of between two and six points in late October 2010, according to CNN and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls, but that narrow edge still resulted in the 63-seat gain..
Generic Ballot at “even” basically means the GOP is likely controlling the house... due to the make up fo congressional districts....
Dem districts are generally more heavily weighed DEM while Republican districts are typically less heavily weighed Republican... meaning if the electorate were to vote straight along party lines at a 50-50 split the GOP wins more seats.
I hate using the generic polling on congressional elections because it ignores fundamental things at individual district levels, but if you are looking at what this would mean SHOULD the country regardless of their individual district dynamics vote 50-50... the GOP keeps control of the house....
And historically even when the GOP is below 50/50 on this question they control the house, at 50/50 historically, all other things being equal (which the never ara) GOP should be expected to hold the house with a very solid majority... meaning they may gain seats.
Bump!