Transferring this support to GOP candidates is paramount. It will be curious how close he gets to Nixon’s 1960 performance of around 30% or so, still the high-water mark since.
I have argued it’s a 3-step process:
1) 2016, 3% of blacks stay home
2) 2020, that 3% plus about 5-8% more are added to Trump’s 6% in 2016 for a total black vote of 15% or more. Another 3%-5% stays home.
3) 2024, that additional 5% now votes (total of 20%) and another 15% or so doesn’t vote. The original groups identify by now with the Republican Party.