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I trust the Graham plan. I don't “trust” any of the four swing senators, but I am betting the following: Collins and Mancin are “yes” because Maine and West Virginia polls are leaning strongly towards Kavanaugh over Ford. (Can you imagine how little the people of West Virginia think of Christine Ford)? Flake would be willing to change his vote up until the last minute. However, since Pence can/will break a tie, Flake can't really help the Dems unless Collins also votes “no”, so the Dems won't be that grateful to him if they don't end up winning, while the Republicans will be out of blood if he votes “no” even if Kavanaugh ends up winning...so I predict that Flake will vote “yes” if Collins votes “yes”. Murkowski will vote “no” to curry favor with the lefties and because she knows she can't really sink Kavanaugh — this, won't incur too much wrath from Republicans — if she votes “no”. So, I think it'll be Collins, Flake, and Mancin “Yes”, and Murkowski “no”.