If Manchin votes for Judge Kavanaugh, he will be a pariah in the democrat caucus in the Senate. If Manchin casts the deciding vote against Judge Kavanaugh, he probably won’t be in the Senate anymore.
Manchin is in such a TRUMP state that is path to survival is VOTE: “YES” and become either an (I) or a (R) and just say this (D) Party is no longer mine. Could Trump actually broker a deal and support him and give his opponent another slot in government?