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Primary turnout is a piss poor indicator of much.

Those numbers rarely change, unless there is a hotly contested primary , regardless of what is going on in the rest of the body politic.

You have the same party loyalist show up for both sides, unless there is some hotly contested primary... using those numbers as a indicator for the general election is a fools errand.

Dems, had they been remotely sane, just had to keep their heads down and were marching to an almost certain house pick up this fall.

Kavanaugh destroyed ANY chance of that. The democrat advantage was based on the fact that Democrats are motivated... they are going to show up and vote for any D just to “stick it to Trump” the GOP was not getting anywhere near that motivation level... but more importantly the GOP had not, by design or by incompetence, done ANYTHING to engage and motivate those non traditional MAGA and cross over voters, that gave Trump the Upper Midwest, in particular.

Their entire fall campaign has all been around, same old tired messaging that NEVER got those people to show up. Calling your opponent a Pelosi clone isn’t going to motivate those people, its a message that sells to your hard core base, but does nothing outside it, and that’s the messaging the GOP has been relying on for hte fall, and its why PA-18 and OH12 happened... Before Kavanaugh the GOP was going to lose 10 seats across the upper midwest alone... if not more... and almost certainly lose the house.

What Kavanaugh did, and the Dems fail to realize, is it not only completely fired up the GOP base... but it ANGERED AND FIRED UP THE INDEPENDENTS AND NON TRADITIONAL MAGA VOTERS!

The Dems, living in their little blue bubbles, honestly though this would be a win for them... and would motivate their base, and they could play this as protecting women and pull women.. but it hasn’t and won’t. The Dems fail to recognize, their base is already fully engaged, they aren’t going to motivate any more D’s to show up for them, the engine is already red lined for them there... So pandering to them in a way that ANGERS everyone else, was STUPID....

To paraphrase Admiral Yamamoto after the bombing of Pearl Harbor... All they have done is awoken a sleeping giant and filled him with terrible resolve.

Dems were willing to crawl over glass to vote this fall... Now, not only are Republicans equally willing and motivated to vote for their Candidates, but the Independents largely are too! Not so much because the GOP has given them a strong reason to, but because the Dems behavior is ABSOLUTELY SO REPUGNANT on this Kavanaugh situation, they are going to punish them!

So long as Kavanaugh is confirmed at the end of the day, and I fully expect him to be with 52-55 votes.... the Dems will be crushed this fall, and its honestly a wholly preventable loss, and completely self inflicted.

The GOP will be sitting at 57 or more in the Senate, and still in control of the house, and honestly as I said I say its better than even odds the GOP now gains seats in the house. And that will be the case for the next 2 years.. heading into a Presidential Election that Trump will almost certainly win (short of a complete economic collapse) by the biggest landslide since Reagan/Mondale.

Odds are high that Trump will likely name replacements for Ginsberg and Breyer in his second term..ANd possibly Thomas and Sotomayor as well depending on their health.

There is a very real chance, that Trump may name 6 justices to the supreme court when all is said and done.... Ginsberg I suspect will try her best to hold on... so she may actually DIE rather than retire and let Trump name her successor.. But we shall see...