Then you have been wearing blinders.
Go look at every special election held since Nov 16 and you’ll see one nearly constant pattern.. Democrats are turning out in near presidential year levels while GOP turnout has been at regular midterm levels.
The only reason the GOP has won most of the special elections is because they have been held largely in deep red districts where even midterm level turnouts by the GOP are higher than presidential year turnouts by Dems in them.
PA18 and OH12 are perfect examples of what was coming this fall before the Kavanaugh circus... and a lot of purple nd pink districts were going to go blue.
The Dems complete overplay on Kavanaugh and dirty pool managed to do something they GOP themselves seemed unwilling or unable to do and that is motivate not only their base, but also engage and anger and motivate the non traditional And cross over MAGA voters.
Before this circus the GOP was almost certainly losing the house... but the Dems outrageous behavior re Kavanaugh, and the obvious transparency of it, slammed that door shut hard.
All true......but, you gotta look at the turnout for the primaries. The GOP turnout has matched and in some cases exceeded the Democratic turn out. For example in Texas, Ted Cruz alone got more primary vote than all three US Senate candidates for the Dems combinaed. This is why, I for one, have never been worried about Ted Cruz loosing to O’Rourke.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election
“Then you have been wearing blinders.”
Well, to be fair, that is the only conceivable reason I could possibly hold an opinion that differs from yours.
“nearly constant pattern...largely...what was coming...almost certainly...”
Yeah, looks like a lock.