They said 18 months when I was going through the process. My screening started in February and I was in a TS seat in June. That being said, there were only 7 other people in the country doing what I did so maybe I got a fast track? No prior clearance, no military service, hell, I didn’t even have a college degree at the time.
And btw, I’m not discounting at all what you’re saying about things changing with clearances. I quit and went to college. When I was ready to graduate and was applying for jobs, I looked into going back into a TS job but decided the clearance hassle wasn’t worth it and I could make more in the private sector anyway.
I doubt it would take the full 18 months, but they aren’t sponsoring anyone regardless. Even though they can’t fill countless position they are only considering active TS. Now, they are sponsoring younger folks; < 5 years experience. But no shock there.