“A New York Times poll released yesterday has the Republican incumbent in Kansas 3rd down by 8.”
Kansas’ 3rd CD is odd. It’s overall an upper middle-class district with a lot of Republicans - but it’s not a conservative district. It has elected Democrats to Congress before.
Here’s a link that may give you some perspective on that race:
https://www.electionprojection.com/kansas-3rd-district-election.php