[Mariner]

“Nonsense, no one is going to lob nukes at each other.”

Any war between the US and China, or the US and Russia inevitably goes nuclear. And the losing side is most likely to cross the threshold first.

[central_va]

Any war between the US and China, or the US and Russia inevitably goes nuclear.

Nope, not going to happen.

[Zhang Fei]

[Any war between the US and China, or the US and Russia inevitably goes nuclear. And the losing side is most likely to cross the threshold first.]

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I’d say it inevitably stays conventional. Because national leaders like to stay alive. They also like having family members and friends in good health. They also don’t like having their names associated with the destruction of tens of millions of their kinfolk. It’s not that they’re great humanitarians. It’s just that there’s no benefit to fighting a nuclear war against a country that has substantial retaliatory ability and good early warning systems. Now against a conventionally-armed foe with no retaliatory ability, that is beating them conventionally, I’d say there a chance of a limited nuclear attack. But not against a peer nuclear power with counterforce ability. Again, this is the same reason neither German nor Japanese troops use chemical weapons against the Western Allies - fear of massive retaliation.