This poll makes more sense. The one thing I’ve seen in nearly every one of the recent “Democrats are going to win” polls is huge oversampling of Democrats. A recent ABC Washington Post poll surveyed was made up of 35% Democrats and 25% Republicans and 40% independents or some such breakdown. One poll I do look to as a canary in the coal mine is the Gallup party id trend poll.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
The trend in this poll which isn’t asking who someone is going to vote for or loaded with leading questions trying to sway voters is that Democrats are bleeding support. At the beginning of the year Democrats had a +10 point lead in party id over GOP. The last data point from August now shows the GOP +1. That is a huge shift.
If you go back to 2016 before President Trump was elected this same poll showed Democrats with a +4 advantage. I’m waiting for the September data point(s) to be added but I don’t buy the narrative at all of this huge “blue wave”. Also the GOP is breaking record after record fundraising and has 5x the cash of the DNC. That doesn’t indicate to me an unexcited GOP base. Also with all the good economic news there is no reason to believe these polls. Democrats will gain in the House but I believe it will be much smaller than they expect and I believe there may be a remote chance that the GOP holds the house.
That makes sense since TRUMP policies favor them!!!
Generic polls of likely voters for the House are notorious for being pretty inaccurate.
See 2016:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html#polls
Also 2014:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html
Believe it or not in the 2010 elections most of the final showed a higher than average advantage for the GOP.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
Interesting about the gallup poll — thanks.