I don't think it is a matter of whom to believe. Weather forecasting changes constantly. We had remnants of TS Gordon headed our way. Forecasts had 5 to 8 inches of rain in our area. We ended up with 4 inches. It rained the entire time though. There wasn't anything to do outside.
Yes, understand. We get stuff like that in Nebraska frequently, as relates to both summer storms (tornadoes, hailstorms), and winter blizzards and ice.
I have been watching the National Hurricane Center tracking projections, which seem to update every several hours, and also has that predicted rainfall map. The newest info seems much more favorable for Virginia.