That's the hypothesis being used in the administration, but it's not the only one and it remains to be seen if it's the right one. China has 4X our population. They want to grow, and are growing internal consumption. And while we may be the biggest export market, we aren't the only one. There are plenty of places for them to sell into.
Poison,
Lots of places want to grow, Hell China and India combined are about a 1.3 of the worlds population.. but desire to grow, and actual growth are 2 different things and take a long long time to happen.
The US consumption is in no way on the verge of being replaced by any single, or even group of nations....
Someday that may not be the case, but it will be the case for a long long time yet.
You cannot replace the US consumer... China knows this.. without it, they risk economic and social instability... which is why, if we ever truly get into a trade war... a REAL trade war... China loses.
Take a look at this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets
Now, tell me, what markets on that list is China not already exporting to? The top 3 are the US, the EU and China... China is already active with ALL of the top players... so tell me, where do they get to expand to replace the 13 TRILLION DOLLARS of consumption that the US economy has??? When the nations that are available to them, that they haven’t tapped measure their entire domestic consumption in 200 Billion or less??
China knows it can’t win a real trade war... without US cash influx, its own internal growth and consumption collapses.. they are in full on recession within months if the spigot stops, and political unrest shortly thereafter.
There is no calculus where China wins a trade war with the US... A consumer can always do without.. an producer needs the consumer to live.