Posted on 09/09/2018 3:41:24 PM PDT by SMGFan
For months now, the focus of Campaign 2018, rightly, has been on control of the House. All the metrics continue to point to a midterm election in which Democrats could seize control of that chamber. But for sheer drama and unpredictability, the contest for control of the Senate could be the place to look.
The House is no slam-dunk for the Democrats, but most Republicans following the campaigns are genuinely worried and probably right to be that way. The overall environment is difficult for the GOP because of President Trump and because of the location of the competitive races; suburban areas as one example. There are so many Republican-held seats at risk (and very few Democratic seats in similar danger) that Democrats have multiple paths to pick up the 23 they need to flip the chamber.
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The range of possibilities in the Senate is not at all the same as in the House. No one questions whether Democrats will gain seats in the House in two months. The question is how many: a few short of the 23 they need, a few more than 23 or a lot more than 23. In the Senate, Republicans could, narrowly, lose control of the chamber or they could end up bolstering their slender two-seat majority.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
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GOP will gain seats in both houses.
The bigger the Democrat Butt Hurt Circus gets, the more seats the GOP gains.
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Since Blacks are an important block of voters, can anyone tell me just why they would be interested in voting this year against Republicans?
It seems to me that a certain chunk of the3 Democrat voters would join the Walkaway movement.
The Senate is not in play. The ONLY question about the senate is how many seats will the GOP gain...
I was aware they were cheerleading, which is why I asked for specifics. There are a lot of cheerleaders who blindly believe everything is a rose and are shocked on election night. I must have read scores of posts that Stewart will win over Kaine in VA, which of course will not happen. The repubs do need to pick up seats in the Senate since in two years the number of seats the republicans will be defending and democrats defending will flip flop from this year.
If this is a wave election, most all Senate seats go in one direction, but at the moment, it would seem most likely the republicans pick up a handful of seats - perhaps 3 - and that includes a loss in Nevada, but who knows? There is still much campaigning to go.
My guesses as to the 17 seats in play:
These are the ones I think are truly up for grabs:
WI: Baldwin (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Heller (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D)
I suspect Baldwin keeps her seat but Nelson loses his as does Tester, Heitkamp, and McCaskill. I’d guess Donnelly and Heller keep theirs. The Republicans end up +4.
Losing the House would be a setback but its more important to keep the Senate. That keeps the power to confirm judges and other appointments, makes it far easier to enact any international agreements we enter into and blocks any Democrat attempts at impeachment. With any luck, President Trump gets to replace at least one of the Gang of Four on the Supreme Court in the next couple years.
There is very little actual polling data, even on realclearpolitics. Much is quite dated and should not be relied upon. Lots of guesswork and narrative pushing.
Exactly. If this doesn’t convince people to keep Democrats out of office, they are beyond help.
I’ve read your comments, LS, since at least 2012, and you’re the best political commentator out there that I trust. I check your twitter feed several times a day for your latest comments, as well as here.
As an aside, people know I watch the prophets as well. Some major ones are also coming into consensus about a ‘red (republican) wave’ and that POTUS will have help from the House/senate republicans after the election to ‘have his back’ and further the agenda. This doesn’t mean it’s pre-destined, but voters should pray, vote, and ignore the media/polls (just like election 2016)!
But what about the RATs’ great messaging?
RATS: “Economy is really bad, hurting the little guy.”
OBAMA: “Don’t forget I was the one responsible for this great economy.”
Or, how ‘bout this?
RAT CONSULTANT INTERVIEWEE: “Tax cuts are bad — only help the rich.”
Maria Bartiromo (today): “HOW are they bad?”
RATS: “They only last 10 years.”
Gahd I hope you are right.
it would be unusual to find someone less informed than you though. All you are is a troll who trashers freepers, and now the entire site. Go back to DU where you belong troll
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