Palin would probably lose. My impression is she doesn’t have the following she used to have in Alaska.
Also one thing I learned from the Murkowski independent run, Alaskans only want you to think they are rugged individualists (I guess that so you will keep watching the reality TV shows!). There is a very large contingents of “gimmiedats” in Alaska! Murkowski relied on them to get her seat back and to keep it!
Alaska is a relatively poor state outside the oil boom years. Having lived there it’s hard to explain. Her views on abortion would be the least of many voters concerns.
Her and Don Young, and Ted Stevens, would have never gotten elected if that weren’t the case.